- Post-PIA reforms attracted over $16 billion and strengthened indigenous participation.
- Deepwater projects and refining expansion support gradual sector recovery.
The post-Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) oil sector recovery is gaining momentum across Nigeria’s energy industry. Recent reforms, rising local participation, and renewed capital inflows support this improvement. Although challenges persist, confidence has returned gradually. Consequently, the sector now shows signs of stabilisation after years of decline.
Pedro Omontuemhen of PwC Nigeria disclosed this outlook at the LCCI 2026 Economic Review Conference. He explained that policy reforms and market shifts now reshape the industry. Therefore, output stability and investor confidence continue to improve. However, recovery remains uneven.
Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.64 million barrels daily in 2025. This figure marks improvement over previous years. Nevertheless, production still falls below the two-million-barrel potential. According to Omontuemhen, oil theft and ageing infrastructure explain this gap.
Significantly, reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act changed investor perception. Executive orders further strengthened regulatory clarity. As a result, the sector attracted over $16 billion in new investments. These reforms also increased indigenous operator participation across assets.
However, local operators still face funding and security pressures. Onshore assets remain exposed to vandalism and theft. Therefore, operators incur higher operating risks. Despite this, indigenous firms now control about 55 per cent of national production.
The post-PIA oil sector recovery also reflects modest economic gains. Oil and gas contributed 3.44 per cent of GDP in the third quarter of 2025. This figure improved slightly from 2024 levels. Firmer oil prices and better security supported this growth.
Meanwhile, global petroleum demand remains resilient. Gasoline and diesel consumption will likely rise through 2045. Diesel demand alone may reach 30.1 million barrels daily. Therefore, oil remains relevant in the global energy mix.
Nigeria’s refining capacity has also improved. The Dangote Refinery and modular plants drive this transformation. Consequently, fuel imports have declined. However, domestic crude supply challenges persist.
Deepwater projects now offer growth potential. Offshore assets face lower security risks. Projects like Bonga North and Owowo may further lift output. Improved fiscal terms support these investments.
Nonetheless, risks remain visible. Oil theft and infrastructure decay still constrain capacity. Global price volatility could also push prices lower in 2026. Therefore, fiscal discipline remains essential.
Looking ahead, output may recover to 1.8 to 2.0 million barrels per day. This outlook depends on security and policy consistency. Sustained reforms remain critical for long-term growth.