- US natural gas production is forecast to average 112.5 billion cubic feet per day this winter, exceeding last year’s output by 2.5 billion cubic feet per day.
- Strong production and ample storage could keep domestic gas prices lower despite elevated global energy prices and rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
The US natural gas market is expected to see supply growth outpace demand during the 2026–2027 winter season, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).
In its winter outlook released on October 8, the industry group forecast average dry natural gas production of 112.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). This represents an increase of approximately 2.5 Bcf/d from last winter and 7 Bcf/d above the average for the previous three winters.
Meanwhile, the NGSA expects total natural gas demand to increase by 1.6 Bcf/d year-on-year, based on normal winter weather conditions. The projected production growth would therefore exceed the anticipated increase in demand.
Storage Levels Expected To Remain Strong
US natural gas inventories are projected to enter the 2026–2027 heating season at approximately 3.85 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). This level would put storage close to the amount recorded at the end of the previous summer’s injection season.
The NGSA also expects inventories to reach approximately 1.95 Tcf by the end of March 2027, when the winter withdrawal season typically ends. The forecast exceeds storage levels recorded during most of the past five winters.
Strong inventories and rising domestic production could help the US maintain adequate supplies throughout the heating season. However, actual demand and storage levels will depend partly on winter temperatures and consumption patterns.
Domestic Gas Prices Could Remain Lower
The outlook puts the average Henry Hub forward price for winter at $3.43 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). That compares with the $4.51/MMBtu average recorded last winter.
According to the report, ample storage and stronger production should support domestic supply and limit price pressures. However, global gas benchmarks remain elevated amid supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
The outlook also identifies liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and natural gas consumption in the power sector as the main drivers of winter demand growth.
Residential, commercial and industrial gas consumption are expected to remain broadly stable under normal weather conditions. Consequently, changes in export volumes and electricity generation will play a major role in determining overall demand.
LNG Exports And Power Generation Remain Key Drivers
Rising LNG exports continue to connect the US domestic gas market more closely with international energy markets. At the same time, natural gas-fired power plants remain an important source of domestic demand.
The NGSA’s projections suggest that increased production and strong storage levels could give the US market a supply cushion this winter. Nevertheless, severe cold weather or stronger-than-expected demand could alter the balance.
The association’s outlook points to a relatively well-supplied domestic market, even as international energy markets face continued uncertainty.