Championing Energy Transition in Nigeria’s Electricity Landscape

With mounting concerns for the earth’s climate and natural environment, the world has adopted several strategies to avoid global climate catastrophe and save life on the planet from extinction. The “energy transition” is one such strategy because energy use is linked to over two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and, consequently, climate change.

What then is the energy transition? 

In the context of climate change mitigation which the world is focused on today, it is shifting from fossil-based energy systems (coal, oil, natural gas) to zero-carbon, climate-friendly and renewable sources (solar, wind, hydro, energy storage etc.). Although our focus is on the electricity sector, it is important to note that the energy transition is not limited to electricity alone; it covers all energy forms and applications (buildings, transport, industry).

With a fair idea of the energy transition, it is also key to understand it within our local context in Nigeria. Our power system has an estimated 13 GW installed generation capacity and is dominated by gas-fired power plants. Due to the unreliability of the grid, households and businesses opt for the use of generators which some estimates suggest have a capacity of up to 42 GW, well over three times the entire national grid capacity. This large fleet of generators emit millions of tonnes of harmful CO2 and other polluting greenhouse gases that cause global warming. While these generators initially emerged as “back-up” solutions, they have become the mainstay of Nigeria’s electric power supply. Therefore, going by our initial definition of the energy transition as changing the primary energy source in an energy system, the energy transition in Nigeria would involve transitioning from these dirty fossil-fuelled back-up solutions to cleaner alternatives.

The Multi-Layered Structure of Electricity Supply

Nigeria’s electricity supply sector is multi-layered, and as such, consumers must adapt solutions to reflect the realities of this structure. The three layers of Nigeria’s electricity pyramid are

1. Unconnected Off-Grid Locations – Base of the Pyramid
2. Back-Up Generation – Mid Level
3. National Grid – Top of the Pyramid

I opine that the sector should apply solutions in a bottom-up manner that allows systems, structures and policies to act as building blocks for realising the solutions. Also, because most problems are usually complex with many facades, solutions should be multifaceted and holistic.

Multifaceted Energy Transition Strategies

The multi-layered electricity supply structure requires a corresponding multifaceted approach that must be pursued simultaneously with interlinkages to achieve the energy transition in Nigeria. The energy transition strategies for each respective level of the electricity supply pyramid are

Access to Energy

In a traditional sense, access to energy may not be considered part of the energy transition as the energy transition requires an existing source of electricity to transition from in the first place, and because the unserved populations in the base of the pyramid don’t have any electricity, there is nothing to transition from. However, let’s look further at this problem. We realise that these unconnected locations eventually get electricity connections, usually through grid extension, albeit at a slow pace and great expense to the government. When this technique is exchanged for cheaper and faster to deploy renewable-based solutions like solar home systems and solar mini-grids, the transition is therefore focused on methodology in the short term but relevant within the overall transition of fuel source. Fortunately, Nigeria is making good progress in using off-grid renewable technologies to provide access to energy for unconnected populations, although innovation in strategy and execution is required to speed up the pace of deployment.

Fuel and Technology Switching

As Nigeria gets a large share of its power supply from back-up generation, it is important to work out plans, policies and strategies to transition from these highly polluting generators. Smaller engines produce more emissions than larger ones. The ubiquitous nature of generator usage in Nigeria (with some entities using multiple generator sets at the same location) creates many small point sources of emission, compounding an already complex problem. Note that the transition cannot happen in one fell swoop, so focusing on fuel-switching in the short to medium-term may become necessary. Fuel switching will involve changing/modifying generator engines to run on less polluting fuels like natural gas rather than liquid hydrocarbons (petrol, diesel, LPFO). Ideally, in the long run (20 – 30 years), the grid should have improved and become reliable, naturally phasing out the entire generator fleet. However, in a situation where this doesn’t happen (which is a possibility), the back-up generation will still be required using renewable/clean technologies, which would have undergone huge technological improvements and even price drops below current levels.

System Transformation

In this segment of the transition, the focus is on the centralised power system. System transformation entails altering the power system from one powered by fossil-fuelled generation to one dominated by renewables in the long term to decarbonise electricity production. These decarbonisation plans are predicated upon climate concerns and the effectiveness of renewables to achieve the goals. However, it may get tricky due to the intricate nature of the grid and its operational limitations. An increased share of variable renewable energy (VRE) like solar PV and wind in the power system would mean that overall power output will fluctuate as VRE electricity production is weather-dependent. The rest of the system would be required to operate flexibly in response to the unpredictability of VRE, conducting a real-time balancing act using the outputs of other power plants like natural gas plants, firm renewables like hydropower, biomass, waste-to-energy etc. to make up for any shortfalls in the overall system output. Besides the need to use more renewables for electricity production, the power system transformation is also driven by the increasing digitisation of systems and infrastructure, development in technology and coupling with other sectors like transport and industry where the end-use of energy can be electrified.

Summarily, a transformed power system will go from a centralised, fossil-powered, one-way transmission and distribution structure to a decentralised, interconnected, distributed renewable-powered and flexible structure that has the following capabilities/attributes;

• Large scale grid energy storage
• grid management ability, e.g. VRE production forecasting
• grid infrastructure extensions and reinforcements
• use of surplus electricity to produce heat or gas like hydrogen for industrial use
• demand-side integration (DSI) to regulate load demand from consumers by shifting the time of power consumption, e.g. electric vehicle charging
• accurate/smart metering of power consumption

 Conclusion

As we can appreciate by now, the energy transition has to be implemented beyond the political pledges and declarations or the feel-good use of buzz words. It requires a holistic strategy that caters to different inputs from technical to economic and institutional. It includes the use of novel and reliable technologies, thorough operational and planning practices, and suitable policies, markets and regulatory frameworks. The transition is expensive; therefore, public-private partnerships (PPP), in addition to policy and regulatory certainty, will help mobilise financing to fund the diverse portfolio of actions required to achieve it. Also, for the transition to be just, fair and inclusive, there must be efforts to train, reskill and upskill the electricity sector workforce’s capacity, including grooming and fostering strong leadership, as they are central to the success of the transition.

While there are differences of opinions regarding Nigeria’s commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, we must realise that the energy transition is a journey with the destination being “net-zero” emissions, and if we don’t start the journey on time, we may arrive late or not at all at our net-zero destination. Moreover, because it is a journey that no country has completed before, there are no perfectly drawn out roadmaps to follow. However, we can learn lessons from countries ahead of us in the journey and adapt the solutions to fit our local contexts. In this regard, we must explore south-south cooperation where we learn from fellow global south developing countries as their realities are similar to ours’, and therefore their solutions may be better suited for our system.