A recent analysis of global renewable energy ambitions by the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that nearly half of the countries examined plan to increase their installed renewable power capacity by 2030. Some nations are even more ambitious, aiming to achieve their targets at an accelerated pace.
If all these ambitions are realized, the global installed renewable capacity will be 2.2 times the 2022 level by 2030. Nearly 30 countries are leading this charge, aiming to increase their renewable capacity by two to three times by 2030.
These countries account for nearly three-quarters of the global ambition, with China, the United States, India, Germany, and Spain at the forefront. Current policies and plans in advanced economies suggest an almost doubled renewable capacity by 2030, representing about 40% of the global ambition.
The IEA says European countries play a significant role here, contributing one-fifth of the global total. EU member states account for over 80% of the region’s contribution, primarily based on their draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs). The United States and Canada aim to install nearly 1,000 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, representing 13% of the global ambition.
Emerging and developing economies, excluding China, also plan to double their renewable capacity, driven largely by India’s strong ambitions. In Latin America, where renewables constitute over 60% of the region’s electricity generation due to the extensive use of hydropower, countries aim to increase installed capacity by 1.3 times by 2030.
According to the IEA, Brazil is a major player in this region, responsible for more than half the total ambition. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasia have set goals to increase their installed renewable capacity by 3.2 times and 1.3 times by 2030.
The Middle East and North Africa region is expected to experience the highest growth, aiming for a 4.5-fold increase from its current levels, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria. In 2023, global renewable capacity additions reached almost 560 GW, marking a record 64% year-over-year increase from 2022.
This aligns with the annual growth rate needed to achieve nearly 8,000 GW of installed capacity by 2030, reflecting various countries’ current policies, plans, and estimates. Nearly 50 countries are on track to meet or exceed their current plans, with China being the most significant contributor.
In 2023, China installed almost 350 GW of new renewable capacity, accounting for more than half of the global total. If China maintains this pace, it could significantly surpass its existing 2030 ambitions.
However, to meet national ambitions outside of China, the rest of the world must accelerate its average annual growth by 36% over the remainder of the decade. To achieve these national ambitions and ensure widespread progress, deployment rates must increase in most regions and major countries, including the European Union, the United States, and India.
On the flip side
Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa require significant scaling up of renewable energy deployment. Despite these ambitious plans, the world would still fall 30% short of tripling global renewable capacity to over 11,000 GW by 2030, even if all countries fully implement their current ambitions.
This shortfall highlights a misalignment with the COP28 pledge to triple global renewable power capacity by 2030, a key step towards the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) pathway for achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century and limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The level of ambition for advanced economies needs to increase from a growth factor of 1.9 to 2.5. Emerging and developing economies should aim to increase growth from 2.4 to 3.4.
Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasia target installed renewable capacities of 166 GW and 122 GW, respectively, by 2030. This represents a 3.2-fold increase for Sub-Saharan Africa and a 1.3-fold increase for Eurasia.
These regions could accelerate renewable capacity deployment by tapping into untapped, economically viable hydropower resources. Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria, South Africa, and Ethiopia account for almost 60% of the region’s ambitions.
Russia holds just over 50% of the capacity goal in Eurasia, mainly due to its existing hydropower fleet. Only Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan in Eurasia have explicitly announced total renewable energy capacity ambitions for 2030.
Achieving these goals will require more than doubling the annual growth rate in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to 2023, necessitating access to affordable financing, reduced off-taker risks, and expanded transmission and distribution systems.