- By 2035, Rystad Energy predicts that 73% of Europe’s electricity will come from clean sources, with North African subsea interconnectors potentially supplying up to 24 GW.
- Major projects, including the Xlinks initiative and interconnections between Greece, Egypt, Tunisia, and Italy, aim to enhance renewable capacity in North Africa, targeting an investment exceeding $27.5 billion.
- North Africa’s renewable energy potential faces challenges, including supply chain constraints and financing hurdles, which could delay project timelines and limit capacity expansion.
Rystad Energy forecasts that by 2035, 73% of Europe’s electricity will come from clean energy sources. Subsea interconnectors from North Africa could supply up to 24 gigawatts (GW) of this electricity. Currently, only Morocco connects to Spain with two high-voltage cables, each with 700 megawatts (MW) capacity. Engineers plan a third cable with the same capacity.
Several significant projects are in the works, including the Xlinks initiative. This project aims to create a 3.6-GW subsea interconnection between the UK and Morocco. It will also integrate 11.5 GW of renewable capacity and 22.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage. Other proposed interconnections include the GREGY initiative, which connects Greece and Egypt, and the ELMED-TUNITA project, which links Tunisia and Italy.
Rystad estimates these three initiatives could deploy about 7.2 GW of interconnector capacity. They would also add 23 GW of renewable resources in North Africa, including 13.5 GW of solar and 9.5 GW of onshore wind. Investors expect the overall investment to exceed $27.5 billion. Together, these projects could generate around 55 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, which would represent 1.6% of Europe’s total power generation.
Analyst Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil of Rystad Energy highlighted North Africa’s potential to support Europe’s energy goals. He noted that the region’s proximity makes it ideal for buyer-seller relationships. This closeness facilitates large-scale solar and wind projects and encourages the construction of subsea cables across the Mediterranean and to the UK. Thaikoottathil explained that wind power in Europe peaks in winter, while solar power peaks in summer. This seasonal variation helps balance power supply fluctuations and allows for the diversification of energy sources, which reduces reliance on fossil fuels.
Despite the promising outlook, North Africa faces significant challenges in expanding its renewable energy capacity. Rystad identifies supply chain constraints as an important issue. The region has limited local manufacturing capacity leads to heavy reliance on imports. This dependency affects the availability of solar and wind energy technologies.
Additionally, similar supply chain issues will likely arise in the manufacturing and procuring of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables, which play a crucial role in the interconnectors’ effective operation. Financing hurdles may also delay project timelines, further complicating the energy landscape.
North Africa boasts strong renewable energy potential, with more than 350 GW of solar and wind projects in various stages of development. However, most of these projects remain in the concept phase. To realise this potential, stakeholders must invest in local manufacturing and supply chains.
In conclusion, North Africa’s role in Europe’s clean energy transition appears promising yet complex. The planned interconnectors could significantly bolster renewable energy supplies in Europe. However, stakeholders must address supply chain and financing challenges. As Europe aims to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas, these North African projects may become vital components of the continent’s energy strategy. Achieving this vision will require collaborative efforts between nations and stakeholders to ensure a sustainable and reliable energy future.