- GERD will generate 6,450 MW of electricity, positioning Ethiopia as a major energy exporter and potentially boosting its economy by $2 billion annually through regional energy sales.
- Egypt and Sudan remain concerned about water security, fearing the dam could reduce Nile water flow, heightening geopolitical disputes over resource control.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile is Africa’s largest hydroelectric project. With a capacity of 6,450 megawatts, GERD positions Ethiopia to become a significant energy exporter. However, the $5 billion project has sparked tensions with Egypt and Sudan over water security.
Ethiopia announced plans for the dam in 2008 and began construction in 2011. Engineers built a structure 155 meters high and 1,780 meters long, holding a 74 billion cubic meters reservoir. This massive reservoir covers 1,874 square kilometres.
By 2020, Ethiopia had achieved the dam’s total capacity. Officials completed the project in 2022, showcasing advanced construction and seismic-resistant technology. The dam, equipped with 16 Francis turbines, generates over 16,153 GWh annually, cementing Ethiopia’s role as a regional energy supplier.
However, GERD has intensified regional disputes. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for over 90% of its water, views the dam as a direct threat. Egypt raised the issue with the UN Security Council, fearing reduced water flow. Any decrease in Nile flow could further strain Egypt’s already critical water supply.
Sudan also faces concerns. While GERD offers better hydropower and expanded irrigation, it lacks regulations, raising fears of flooding. Sudanese authorities worry about uncoordinated dam operations, especially in regions prone to seasonal floods.
Ethiopia vigorously defends the project, asserting its right to use the Blue Nile. Ethiopian officials argue the dam will reduce poverty and improve living standards. They emphasise that GERD focuses on electricity generation and will not significantly alter water flow to Egypt or Sudan.
The project challenges historic water agreements. Egypt previously held dominant control over the Nile under the 1929 and 1959 treaties, which Ethiopia rejected. By constructing GERD, Ethiopia has shifted regional water control, creating complex challenges for future Nile governance.
International actors have played critical roles in the project. China provided a $1.2 billion loan, and the African Union and the US have mediated talks between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. Despite these efforts, negotiations have yet to resolve the ongoing conflict.
Economically, GERD promises to generate $2 billion a year from electricity exports to countries like Sudan and Djibouti. This revenue could significantly boost Ethiopia’s economy, reduce poverty, and foster regional cooperation. Sudan stands to gain from increased power supply and enhanced irrigation, potentially boosting its agricultural output.
However, environmental concerns persist. The reservoir could lose up to 3 billion cubic meters of water annually due to evaporation, further straining water availability in Egypt and Sudan. Moreover, GERD’s regulation of Nile floods may reduce the natural deposition of silt, which supports farming in both countries.
GERD offers Ethiopia great economic potential, but its future hinges on careful management of relations with downstream neighbours. Without an agreement, tensions over Nile waters could continue destabilising the region.