- Brazil is set to import nearly 900,000 metric tons of thermal coal in November, the highest monthly tally on record.
- Hydropower typically accounts for around 65 per cent of Brazil’s utility-scale electricity production, with hydroelectricity generation averaging just under 40 terawatt hours.
Brazil is set to import nearly 900,000 metric tons of thermal coal in November, the highest monthly tally on record and three times the monthly average for 2024 so far, according to data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.
The coal buying binge comes as an enduring drought has slashed hydropower output to three-year lows, leaving power producers low on power-generating fuels heading into the hottest months of the year when electricity demand peaks.
Power firms have also lifted imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to their highest since late 2021, indicating that a steep rise in fossil fuel-fired generation is looming in South America’s largest economy.
Higher use of fossil fuels will in turn lift Brazil’s power sector emissions, which are already at their highest since 2021. Hydropower typically accounts for around 65 per cent of Brazil’s utility-scale electricity production, with hydroelectricity generation averaging just under 40 terawatt hours (TWh) a month throughout the first half of 2024, Ember data shows.
However, in September hydro output fell to just 28.7 TWh as a drop in precipitation from the year before hit dam output. According to LSEG, cumulative rainfall in Brazil’s southeast—home to many of the country’s biggest dam systems—was just 584mm (23 inches) over the first 10 months of the year.
That was 10 per cent less than the average from 2019 through 2023 and marks the second straight year of less than 600mm of rain over the opening 10 months of the year.
The drop in actual hydro output also cut hydro’s share of Brazil’s generation mix to just 50 per cent in September, forcing power suppliers to boost output from alternate sources in order to meet system demands.
While Brazil has one of the world’s cleanest power systems, utilities will likely rely on fossil fuels to generate much of the lost hydropower as output from gas and coal-fired power plants can be quickly adjusted to balance system needs.
So far this year, hydro dams have generated around 63 per cent of total electricity supplies, wind farms have accounted for around 15 per cent, while solar farms have generated around 10 per cent.
Nuclear plants have accounted for an additional 2.5 per cent share, while bioenergy plants – which mainly burn sugar cane pulp – have generated an additional 1.5 per cent.
The cumulative share of power generation from clean sources so far in 2024 is 92 per cent, which remains one of the highest globally, however, the remaining 8 per cent share of generation has come from fossil fuels.