- According to CREA, China’s CO2 emissions are set to rise by 0.4% in 2024, putting its 2025 climate target at risk.
- Despite progress in renewables, emissions from the coal-to-chemicals sector surged by 12.5% in 2023, offsetting other gains.
- China must submit new climate targets to the UN by February 2024, but there are concerns about whether its goals will be ambitious enough.
China will see a slight increase in carbon dioxide emissions this year, which undermines its progress toward the 2025 climate targets, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on Wednesday, November 27. Despite rapid growth in renewables and electric vehicles, the country’s rising energy demand slows its emission reduction efforts.
China aims to cut CO2 emissions per unit of economic growth by 18% between 2021 and 2025. However, the report shows that higher energy consumption in 2023 pushed it further behind this target. To reach the 2025 goal, China must reduce emissions by 6% over the next two years, but CREA estimates a further 0.4% increase in 2024.
The country faces a tough road ahead and needs radical measures to meet its targets. China curbed the growth of new steel and coal power capacity, and declining cement production helped slow emissions. However, emissions from the coal-to-chemicals industry surged by 12.5% in 2023, offsetting gains in other sectors.
China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment has not commented on the report.
The world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter plans to submit new “nationally determined contributions” to the United Nations by February 2024. China pledged to peak emissions before 2030, but the United States and others are pushing for faster cuts, urging significant reductions by 2035.
CREA’s report found that 44% of experts believe China’s emissions already peaked, but some experts argue that emissions may rise further before 2030. In September, China introduced new economic stimulus measures that could spur carbon-intensive growth, making emission reductions even more challenging.
Despite progress in reducing emissions from key industries, the rapid growth of the coal-to-chemicals sector remains a significant issue. CREA’s lead analyst, Lauri Myllyvirta, expressed concern about China’s upcoming emission targets for the next decade, suggesting the government’s plans may be too conservative. He stressed that China’s commitments could fall short of the actions needed to curb emissions soon.
China has not revealed the details of its new climate targets, but a state-run think tank urged the government to set an absolute carbon reduction target for 2035. If adopted, this would significantly shift from the current policy, which focuses on reducing emissions per unit of economic growth instead of setting an absolute reduction goal.
Myllyvirta warned that while an absolute target might signal progress, its level of ambition matters more. With rising emissions, China may need to take more decisive actions to meet its long-term climate objectives.
The international community closely monitors its actions as China prepares its updated climate pledges. China’s efforts to curb emissions will play a critical role in global attempts to limit warming and meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.