- Rystad expects Africa’s geothermal power generation capacity to expand to 13 GW by 2050.
- Kenya and Ethiopia will lead the growth of Africa’s geothermal sector, accounting for close to 90% of total capacity.
The latest Rystad Energy projections have shown that Africa’s installed geothermal capacity will surpass Europe by 2030. This increase will be due to a significant investment in the sector. Rystad’s estimate reveals that Africa’s geothermal sector will attract at least $35 billion in investments by 2050. This shows the critical role geothermal power plays in meeting the continent’s rapidly growing energy demand.
Currently, Africa has only about 1 GW of geothermal capacity in 2023 (half of Europe’s total). However, Africa’s total installed capacity will double by 2030, based solely on already announced projects. If the continent considers yet-to-be-announced projects needed to meet government targets, capacity could triple by 2030. Rystad expects geothermal power generation capacity in Africa to expand to 13 GW by 2050. With this expansion, it will surpass the expected 5.5 GW installed capacity in Europe.
Senior Supply Chain Analyst at Rystad Energy, Daniel Holmedal, said, “The geothermal industry in Africa is picking up steam and could help meet soaring demand across the continent in the decades to come. Analysing already-announced projects signals significant growth on the horizon. But developments that Rystad projects to come online, given economics and demand, highlight the rapid build-out. This growth will take the continent from being the sixth largest geothermal power generator in 2023 to the third largest in 2030.”
Kenya and Ethiopia will lead the growth of Africa’s geothermal sector, accounting for close to 90 per cent of total capacity. This is due to their rich geothermal resources and the need to diversify Ethiopia’s power mix. Projections show that the power supply in the two countries will increase six-fold from 2023 to 2050, rising from 34-222TWh. Rystad Energy projects that geothermal supply from the pair will rise well above 10 GW by 2050, potentially reaching as high as 12 GW.
Many African countries with geothermal potential rely heavily on hydropower for their electricity supply. Ethiopia, for instance, currently sources 88 per cent of its electricity from hydro. However, this dependency places these countries at risk of external weather conditions such as droughts. By incorporating more geothermal energy into their power mix, African nations can help reduce their dependency on hydropower and mitigate these risks.