- The outlook by Rystad Energy projects that geothermal power generation capacity in Africa will expand to 13 GW.
- Africa currently possesses only around 1 gigawatt of geothermal capacity in 2023.
Africa’s geothermal sector will attract at least $35 billion in investments by 2050, showing geothermal’s critical role in meeting the continent’s rapidly growing energy demand. According to Rystad Energy’s latest projection, the significant investment will see Africa’s installed geothermal capacity surpass Europe by the end of the decade. Although Africa currently possesses only around 1 gigawatt (GW) of geothermal capacity in 2023, which is half of Europe’s total, the projections expect its overall installed capacity to more than double by 2030.
This projection solely considers already announced projects. The capacity in Africa could triple by 2030 if they factor in undisclosed projects essential for meeting government targets. The forecast stated, “By 2050, we expect geothermal power generation capacity in Africa to expand to 13 GW. This is more than double the expected 5.5 GW installed capacity in Europe. Many African countries with geothermal potential rely heavily on hydropower for their electricity supply. The geothermal industry in Africa is picking up steam and could help meet soaring demand across the continent in the decades to come.”
The forecasts indicate substantial expansion ahead when considering the analysis of announced projects. The anticipated developments, factoring in economic factors and demand, underscore a swift implementation. They expect this progress to elevate the continent’s position from the sixth-largest geothermal power generator in 2023 to the third-largest by 2030. It emphasised that African nations can decrease their dependence on hydropower and address associated risks by integrating more geothermal energy into their power blend. Rystad Energy’s primary scenario heavily depends on the advancement of geothermal resources in Kenya and Ethiopia. This aims to reach a geothermal capacity of 13 GW in Africa by 2050.
“Kenya has already demonstrated its commitment to incorporating geothermal energy into its power mix. With abundant geothermal resources, strong local expertise and increasing interest from international players, it is expected that Kenya will exceed 8 GW of geothermal capacity by 2050,” it added. The Executive Director of PowerUp Nigeria, Adetayo Adegbemle, suggested that Nigeria should send delegations to these nations to study to enhance the country’s geothermal capacity. He noted that the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) could have engaged in such activities, but they have been inactive lately. Therefore, he recommended that the federal government reconstitute the Commission.