- The projection about the health impacts of the coal-fired delays adds to criticism of South Africa’s draft blueprint for power supply through 2050.
- Eskom currently operates 14 coal-fired plants with about 40,000 megawatts of capacity and envisages having less than 10,000 megawatts by 2050.
An air-quality research agency said delays to the planned closures of coal-fired power plants proposed by South Africa’s energy department could result in thousands of deaths from air pollution and lead to billions of dollars of health-related costs.
These delays, purportedly to ensure energy security, clash with projections from the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), indicating a grim toll on public health and the economy. The repercussions extend beyond immediate concerns, with tensions rising over environmental commitments and long-term energy planning.
The projection about the health impacts of the delays, which the energy department says are necessary to guarantee the country’s energy security, adds to criticism of South Africa’s draft blueprint for power supply through 2050.
Comparing proposals in the plan to the closure schedule put forward by state-owned power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air projected that the delays will cause ailments with a total cost of 724 billion rand ($38 billion).
It also forecasts that if implemented, the delays could result in between 20,000 and 50,000 deaths.
“Given that the delayed retirement scenario leaves very substantial coal-fired capacity in place in 2050, there are going to be further health impacts beyond that year,” CREA said in comments emailed to Bloomberg.
The potential delays may also heighten tensions over a $9.3 billion climate-finance pact South Africa sealed with some of the world’s richest nations on condition that it began closing down its coal-fired power plants.
The IRP 2023 potentially sees an extra 14,600 megawatts of coal-fired power running in 2045 and 8,225 megawatts in 2050. Eskom currently operates 14 coal-fired plants with about 40,000 megawatts of capacity and — under its plan — envisages having less than 10,000 megawatts by 2050.