As global leaders prepare for the 26th Conference of Parties (COP 26) at Glasgow in November 2021, some countries may be reviewing their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement to assess how well they have performed against their targets. In the same vein, some countries may be preparing “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) to submit for approval as new NDCs. National governments in the global south may be under pressure to meet their NDC commitments given various multilateral assistance they have received so far. However, the reality is that many developing countries cannot still meet up with their NDC commitments due to fiscal constraints and debt burdens that limit their ability to finance critical projects that will put them on track. While the Paris Agreement recognizes these differences in capacity and responsibility between the developed and developing countries to respond to the ongoing climate crisis, Nigeria isn’t out of the list of lagging countries in its NDC commitments despite various policy efforts. This should raise some concerns, but it may not be a sign of bad performance in efforts to accelerate energy access and support the clean energy transition leveraging on its gas to power initiatives.
Notably, in the past, Nigeria’s aggressive push for gas to power projects has come under various attacks from proponents of a green economy. Still, there may likely be some blindside to this argument of a completely green and renewable energy system considering current events globally. Sadly, investment funds in the coming years will shun fossil fuel projects due to the global push for clean energy, not considering that developing countries have unique circumstances that may affect their ability to leapfrog into a completely clean energy future.
Our approach to the clean energy transition must consider all options on the table – including consideration for resources we have in abundance. Nigeria has a huge solar energy potential and large gas reserves, which makes it obvious that solving our energy access problem is beyond having these abundant energy resources or choosing one option over another, rather the proper planning of the approach we want to take that fits into our local reality despite the clean energy transition debate. According to Damilola Ogunbiyi, if we do not achieve UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 by 2030 – which borders on universal energy access – we cannot achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It will be scientifically and mathematically impossible.[1]
Energy security is national security!
Current events in the United Kingdom should be an eye-opener to the importance of planning our energy mix as we transition to cleaner energy sources – ensuring we consider solutions that will provide resilience even in the middle of unfavourable weather. Currently, in the UK, energy prices are on the rise, increasing economic pressure on the income of small businesses, households, and industries. Among other reasons for this unusual price hike is increased gas prices due to more demand but limited storage and gas availability. This event highlights the importance of basing climate policy on the demand side rather than the supply side. A focus on creating an environment that promotes increased adoption of energy efficiency and decentralized renewable energy solutions will better support the clean energy transition while a ban on investments in gas supply infrastructure will unfavourably affect our energy economics.
Furthermore, energy from wind turbines in the UK is at a standstill due to unfavourable weather conditions. The variability of renewable energy sources will not go away any time soon; therefore, consideration should be made for cleaner fossil fuel sources like gas to support our baseloads while we explore other renewable energy sources like solar, which we have in abundance. Recent predictions by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) indicate that globally we are not on track to meet net-zero as global emissions keep rising beyond pre-pandemic levels.[2] The increasing emissions will likely trigger more climate events that will threaten the resilience of renewable energy sources like
- wind (wind speed and direction) as weather conditions are impacted;
- hydro as desertification and drought reduce water levels in some areas;
- solar as increased rainfall and cloud cover reduce efficiency.
While the impacts of climate change will be more devastating in developing countries, advanced countries are not better insulated either. The floods and wildfires across Europe and North America in 2021 are a testament. However, a clean energy transition does not mean we should lose our thinking cap and be much more aggressive like the global north is expected to be. We do not have the same economic and environmental reality.
The Nigerian government’s policies to promote gas-to-power projects are indeed very commendable and not out of place after all. From the approval of Nigeria’s Gas Master Plan in 2008; the signing of the Final Investment Decision (FID) for NLNG Train 7 project; the approval of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) natural gas pipeline construction to the recent assent by President Muhammadu Buhari to the Petroleum Industry Bill 2021, Nigeria’s strides to promote the usage of gas is a commendable and welcome development that will help as a bridge in clean energy transition journey in the country.
[1] https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/damilola-ogunbiyi-ending-energy-poverty
[2] https://www.irena.org//media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Jun/IRENA_World_Energy_Transitions_Outlook_2021.pdf