- Eskom’s challenges highlight South Africa’s urgent need to balance electricity supply and demand while maintaining energy stability.
- Addressing Eskom’s challenges requires flexible generation, reliable planning, and a faster transition to cleaner energy technologies.
The latest Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) paints a detailed picture of South Africa’s electricity outlook from 2026 to 2030. The System Operator, in accordance with the South African Grid Code, assesses whether the national power system can meet future demand.
The findings reveal progress but also significant risks that threaten grid stability. Under a moderate demand scenario, national electricity demand is expected to increase by 1.4% annually, driven by a projected GDP growth rate of 2.7%. Energy use is expected to grow from 243 TWh in 2024 to 264 TWh in 2030. These figures depend on plant performance, new generation projects, and the pace of retiring older power stations.
From 2029 onwards, however, the energy balance tightens. Eskom will retire 8.4 GW of coal-fired capacity by March 2030, and the Cahora Bassa import contract with Mozambique, which supplies 1.15 GW, will expire. Together, these events will remove 9.5 GW of firm capacity, creating a serious supply gap.
To close this gap, the report proposes 6 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) projects by 2030. Yet, delays threaten these developments. If construction falls behind, the System Operator expects unserved energy to exceed 4 TWh in 2030, while open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) use could increase to 45%, surpassing the 6% benchmark.
At the same time, renewable energy projects continue to expand rapidly. Private investors and Independent Power Producer (IPP) programmes are driving growth in solar PV. Eskom, IPPs, and private firms could together deliver over 30 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. However, this fast growth introduces new challenges.
Midday solar generation often exceeds demand, while evening peaks put a strain on the system. Coal plants must ramp up and down by as much as 7 GW per day, which causes mechanical stress and reduces efficiency. This cycle risks undoing recent improvements in the Energy Availability Factor (EAF).
The MTSAO assumes an average EAF of 60%. If it drops to 55%, load-shedding will likely return. Maintaining it above 65% could ensure grid stability even if some projects face delays.
Transmission networks also need attention. The MTSAO employs a multi-node approach to assess both generation and transmission capacity. It identifies constraints in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, which upgrades such as the Kyalami and Bighorn projects aim to resolve. However, most of these upgrades will only come online after 2030.
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) can ease pressure on the grid. Eskom expects to add 0.36 GW by 2026 and another 1 GW by 2028. Even so, storage capacity still lags behind the growing need for flexibility as renewable generation expands.
The report cautions against overreliance on unconfirmed projects such as the 6 GW of CCGT capacity. Instead, it urges decision-makers to procure flexible, fast-ramping technologies and to enforce strict project timelines.
Ultimately, Eskom’s challenges mirror South Africa’s wider energy dilemma, balancing rapid progress in renewable energy with the realities of an ageing grid. The next five years will test whether the nation can deliver a stable, sustainable, and modern electricity system that supports both economic growth and environmental goals.