- The EU targets a 34 per cent sustainable aviation fuel decarbonisation blend by 2040 and 70 per cent by 2050, surpassing the UK’s 22 per cent target by 2040.
- Policies will increase fares and slow demand growth, projecting a decrease of 11% for direct flights and 4% for connecting flights by 2030.
- UK’s Jet Zero strategy faces criticism for relying on “challenging assumptions,” with calls for a contingency to meet decarbonisation targets.
A study by Oxera Consulting reveals that the European Union’s aviation decarbonisation strategy outpaces the UK’s, but both regions must tackle demand to advance faster.
At the Westminster Energy, Environment and Policy Conference in London, Oxera principal Rob Catherall outlined the EU’s higher targets for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). “The EU mandates a 34 per cent SAF blend by 2040 and 70 per cent by 2050, whereas the UK targets 22 per cent by 2040,” Catherall stated.
The EU also requires airports to supply electricity to stationary aircraft at gates by 2025 and at all remote stands by 2030. Meanwhile, the UK aims to achieve net-zero airport operations by 2040.
The EU and UK operate emissions trading schemes (ETSs) for intra-European flights. However, the EU plans to tax kerosene at a gradually increasing rate, a measure the UK still needs to adopt.
Oxera’s analysis predicts these policies will raise fares and slow air travel growth. Compared to business as usual, direct flight demand in Europe should fall 11 per cent by 2030 and 12 per cent by 2050. Connecting flight demand will drop by 4 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively.
The study estimates the EU’s policies will achieve net carbon savings of 4 per cent by 2030 and 33 per cent by 2050 for direct flights, and 2 per cent and 24 per cent for connecting flights. Despite these gains, the EU’s policies fall short of its goals of a 55 per cent reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. “Reducing demand is crucial for significant emissions progress in the near term,” Catherall emphasised.
He also criticised the UK’s Jet Zero strategy for relying on “challenging assumptions” and stressed the need for a backup plan to meet decarbonisation targets.
Holly Grieg, the Department for Transport’s (DfT) deputy director for aviation decarbonisation, highlighted the impact of non-CO2 effects like contrails and nitrogen oxide. These effects can intensify global warming despite efforts to cut CO2 emissions. The DfT has created a non-CO2 sub-group within the Jet Zero Council to understand better and mitigate these impacts.
“We must address both CO2 and non-CO2 impacts to reduce aviation’s climate footprint effectively,” Grieg said.