- Geothermal power in Africa will grow from 0.7 per cent in 2023 to 1.1 per cent of the electricity mix planned for 2040.
- Kenya is the most advanced in its geothermal exploration, having grown its installed capacity from 15MW to 950MW and actively pursuing an increase to 10GW by 2040.
The African Continental Power Systems Masterplan (CMP) study into Geothermal Power Plants (GPP) has shown that geothermal power offers multiple benefits, including high capacity factors and low costs. The African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) is developing the master plan with the EU-GTAF, IRENA and IAEA. Despite geothermal power’s potential, the AUDA-NEPAD study reveals that the initial development of these projects presents considerable challenges and risks regarding resource exploration and fundraising. According to the study, the high costs of drilling exploration with no guarantee of the estimated potential during the surface exploration phase discourage many private investors and developers.
Countries within the East African Rift System (EARS) have as much as 20 gigawatts (GW) of potential electricity generation through geothermal sources. However, several challenges have seen only about 5 per cent of this being harnessed. The EARS countries consist of an eastern branch and a western branch. The eastern branch extends from the main Ethiopian Rift (Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea) through Kenya into northern Tanzania. The western branch extends from northern Uganda through Rwanda, DRC, Burundi, southern Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, and Mozambique. The study notes that Kenya is the most advanced in its geothermal exploration, having grown its installed capacity from 15MW to 950MW and actively pursuing an increase to 10GW by 2040.
Ethiopia has recently initiated efforts to develop large GPP, with investment in drilling campaigns in several geothermal fields to confirm their potential. Djibouti, Tanzania and Zambia are taking their first steps by undertaking surface evaluations and sinking exploration wells to estimate the potential. The DRC and Eritrea are still to consider and develop a conducive policy. The study further showed, “Ultimately, reducing some of the upfront project risks is a pre-condition to attracting the private investment needed to unlock these opportunities. The CMP developed for Africa shows geothermal power to grow from 0.7 per cent in 2023 to 1.1 per cent of the electricity mix planned for 2040. Current planning for the future diversified energy mix supports the expansion of geothermal power plants (GPP) to countries with a high potential but with little to no existing generation.”