The dynamics of global emissions are undergoing significant shifts. In 2020, China’s total CO2 emissions surpassed all advanced economies combined.
This trend continued in 2023 with a staggering 15% increase. Concurrently, India’s emissions surged, overtaking the European Union to become the third-largest contributor to the global counter.
Developing Asian nations, notably China and India, now shoulder roughly half of the world’s emissions, a notable surge from about two-fifths in 2015 and a mere one‑quarter in 2000. China, in particular, stands out, accounting for a substantial 35%.
Meanwhile, advanced economies maintain significantly higher per capita emissions at approximately 70% above the global average in 2023. In stark contrast, India remains less than half the global average, hovering around 2 tonnes.
The European Union has significantly reduced its per capita emissions, now only around 15% higher than the global average and approximately 40% below China’s. China surged past those of advanced economies in 2020 and continued to rise, surpassing Japan’s in 2023, although they remain one-third lower than those of the United States.
According to the IEA, emissions in advanced economies experienced a decline of about 4.5% in 2023, marking a historic low not seen since 1973. This decline contrasts with previous temporary drops observed in 1974 to 1975 and 1982 to 1983.
Notably, the decline in 2023 represents the largest percentage drop in advanced economies outside of a recessionary period.
However, two crucial distinctions emerge.
Firstly, unlike previous temporary decline, emissions in advanced economies have been structurally downward since 2007.
Secondly, despite this decline, the GDP of advanced economies expanded by approximately 1.7% in 2023, a notable departure from stagnation or recession observed in previous periods.
It is also important to note that the shift towards cleaner energy sources has been pivotal in curbing emissions. Global wind and solar PV installations soared to a new high, reaching nearly 540 GW in 2023, marking a remarkable 75% increase from 2022.
Additionally, the adoption of electric vehicles surged, with sales hitting approximately 14 million, a 35% surge from 2022. These advancements in clean energy technologies are reshaping the trajectory of global CO2 emissions.
Between 2019 and 2023, total energy-related emissions rose by around 900 Mt. This would have been three times as large without adopting five key clean energy technologies—solar PV, wind power, nuclear power, heat pumps, and electric cars.