- IEA forecasts a strong 4% growth in global electricity demand for 2024, driven by economic expansion and technological adoption.
- Renewables, led by solar PV, are set to play a pivotal role in meeting escalating electricity needs, aiming for a 35% global supply share by 2025.ss
According to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand is expected to grow by approximately 4% in 2024, a significant increase from 2.5% in 2023. Global electricity demand is accelerating rapidly due to strong economic growth, intense heat waves, and the expanding use of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
This surge represents the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding the rebounds after the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic.
Renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV), are also rising. Solar PV is projected to reach new records, and renewables’ share of global electricity supply is set to increase from 30% in 2023 to 35% by 2025. In a historic shift, renewables are expected to generate more electricity than coal by 2025.
Solar PV alone is anticipated to meet half of the global electricity demand growth over 2024 and 2025, with solar and wind together meeting up to three-quarters of this growth.
Despite the growth in renewables, coal-fired power generation is unlikely to decrease this year, primarily due to high demand in China and India. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions from the global power sector are stabilizing, with a slight increase expected in 2024, followed by a decline in 2025.
Certain uncertainties persist, such as the recovery of hydropower in China, which could reduce coal-fired generation and lead to a decline in global power sector emissions in 2024.
Several major economies are experiencing notable increases in electricity consumption. India’s demand is forecasted to rise 8% in 2024, driven by economic activity and severe heatwaves. China is also expected to see significant growth of over 6%, fueled by service industries and the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.
In the United States, electricity demand is projected to rebound by 3% this year, following a decline in 2023, driven by economic growth, increased cooling needs, and expansion in the data centre sector.
On the other hand, the European Union expects a more modest recovery in electricity demand at 1.7%, following two years of decline due to the energy crisis.
The increasing use of air-conditioning, exacerbated by intense heatwaves in various regions, continues to drive up electricity demand globally, putting strain on electricity systems.
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, emphasized the significance of these trends, noting that while clean energy’s share is growing, it must accelerate to meet international energy and climate goals. Strengthening electricity grids and implementing higher energy efficiency standards are crucial to ensuring a secure and reliable electricity supply amid rising demand.
Additionally, the report underscores the rising electricity demand from data centres due to artificial intelligence (AI), highlighting the need for improved data and measures to enhance energy efficiency.
The outlook for global electricity demand points to one of the fastest growth rates in decades, reflecting electricity’s increasingly pivotal role in economies worldwide and the challenges posed by severe heatwaves.