- Kazakhstan is in talks with Tajikistan to import electricity from the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) via Uzbekistan.
- The Kazakh Energy Ministry projects electricity consumption to reach 120.6 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, while production will fall short at 118.3 billion kilowatt-hours.
Kazakhstan is in talks with Tajikistan to import electricity from the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) via Uzbekistan to address its growing energy deficit.
On August 28, Kazakh Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev met with Tajikistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Usmonali Usmonzoda and Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources Manuchehr Safarzoda to discuss energy cooperation.
They explored the technical and commercial aspects of potentially exporting electricity from the Rogun HPP to Kazakhstan through Uzbekistan.
“I am pleased to note that we will review the technical parameters and commercial terms for the potential export of electricity generated by the Rogun Hydropower Plant to Kazakhstan, with the consideration of technical feasibility and agreed electricity transit regime through Uzbekistan’s power grids,” said Satkaliyev, according to the press service of the Kazakh Energy Ministry.
This discussion builds on a 2023 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) outlining plans to supply electricity from the Rogun HPP to Kazakhstan from 2023 to 2032. The parties also agreed to finalize agreements by October 15, 2024, to regulate unscheduled electricity flows between neighbouring countries.
The Rogun HPP, a key project for Tajikistan’s energy future, has been in development for decades. When completed, it will be the country’s largest power plant, with a capacity of 3,600 MW. The plant’s third and final generator is expected to come online by the end of 2025, following delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This will significantly boost Tajikistan’s energy production, enabling increased power exports to neighbouring countries, including Kazakhstan.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Tajikistan has the potential to generate up to 527 terawatt-hours of power, but currently, only 4 per cent of that capacity is being utilized. Once the Rogun HPP is fully operational, Tajikistan’s total electricity capacity will increase by over 50 per cent.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan faces a growing energy shortfall, which is expected to worsen in the coming years. The Kazakh Energy Ministry projects electricity consumption to reach 120.6 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, while production will fall short at 118.3 billion kilowatt-hours. By 2025, the deficit is predicted to widen to 3.3 billion kilowatt-hours, increasing the need for imports and raising the risk of unscheduled blackouts.
Kazakhstan’s electricity grid is divided into three distinct regions: the north, the south, and the west. The western zone is expected to produce more power than it needs this year, but it is not connected to the rest of the grid, meaning excess electricity cannot be distributed where it is most needed. A project to connect the western zone to the national grid is expected to be completed by 2028.
Kazakhstan’s grid is also linked internationally, with connections to Russia, China, and several Central Asian countries. As the country explores solutions to its energy challenges, one long-term option under consideration is the construction of a nuclear power plant. On August 28, the government announced plans to hold a national referendum to decide whether to proceed with its first nuclear power plant.