- High dependence on fuel imports due to limited domestic refining capacity.
- Regulatory reforms and new leadership offer potential improvements, but cannot immediately fix structural weaknesses.
Nigeria’s fuel and crude importation remains high despite renewed regulatory oversight and new board appointments in the oil and gas sector. Data shows that over 1.8 million metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) entered Nigeria and other West African countries in November and December 2025. This represents the highest monthly volume in 12 months, highlighting Nigeria’s ongoing reliance on imported fuel. Structural weaknesses in local refining and regulatory coordination continue to be a significant challenge.
Imported fuel accounted for 73% of PMS consumption in November. Consequently, local production gaps forced marketers to maintain high prices. Petrol is sold above N800 per litre across major stations. In Abuja, prices ranged from N739 to N920 per litre, despite Dangote Refinery’s ex-refinery price of N699. Distributors such as MRS, TotalEnergies, AY Shafa, NIPCO, and NNPC Retail largely ignored the reductions, showing the “petrol war” continues.
S&P Global Commodities at Sea confirmed the scale of imports, showing steady supply from Northwest Europe. Analysts reported that gasoline imports surged over 50 per cent in October after price adjustments restored parity.
While Dangote Refinery produces local PMS, operational constraints limited output. Between October and November, production ranged from 18 to 23.5 million litres per day. This is far below the target of 35 million litres and insufficient for national demand. Meanwhile, state-owned refineries, despite having a combined capacity of over 400,000 barrels per day, produced no petrol, thereby widening the supply gap.
Dangote Refinery faced operational fragility. Maintenance on the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC) unit reduced throughput to 330,000 barrels per day in early December. Throughput gradually returned to 450,000 barrels per day. Planned upgrades aim to raise capacity to 700,000 barrels per day by early 2026. Until these upgrades are completed, imports will remain the primary mechanism to secure supply.
Stakeholders emphasise that the new leadership at the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) presents opportunities for reform. However, structural weaknesses persist. Analysts warn imports will continue unless local refineries consistently operate at full capacity.
Professor Wunmi Iledare and industry leaders emphasise the importance of transparency, infrastructure development, and balanced regulation. Joseph Ambakederimo noted that energy supply must not be concentrated in a single operator. A mix of local refining and imports remains essential for stability.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s fuel and crude importation is unlikely to fall in the short term. Sustainable energy security requires the whole operation of local refineries, strategic regulatory enforcement, and ongoing downstream investment. Stakeholders remain cautiously optimistic that new governance will gradually reduce import reliance and strengthen the petroleum sector.