- Persistent insecurity, limited discoveries, and delayed licensing rounds across upstream assets.
- Governance gaps and policy uncertainty are reducing long-term investor commitment.
Nigeria’s oil output decline intensified in December 2025, raising concerns about revenue stability and investor confidence. According to official data, Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, fell by 8.3 per cent year on year. Production dropped to 1.544 million barrels per day from 1.684 million barrels per day in December 2024. This trend confirms that Nigeria’s oil output decline remains a pressing challenge for the energy sector.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission released the figures in its latest report. Although the Commission offered no direct explanation, limited investment and weak production conditions appear influential. Meanwhile, the month-on-month data showed another decline. Output slipped to 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.599 million barrels per day in November.
This outcome meant Nigeria failed to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day. Of the total output, condensate accounted for 122,385 barrels per day. OPEC does not recognise condensate when assessing quota compliance. Consequently, effective crude production remained below the agreed threshold.
The shortfall also affected fiscal projections. Nigeria missed its 2025 budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day. That budget assumed an oil price of $ 75 per barrel and an exchange rate near ₦1,500 per dollar. Therefore, lower production placed additional pressure on public finances.
The Commission reported a daily average production of 1,544,345 barrels. Crude oil accounted for 1,421,960 barrels per day, while condensate supplied the balance. Average crude output represented about 95 per cent of the OPEC quota. However, this level still fell short of full compliance.
Similarly, OPEC’s January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report confirmed the downward movement. Based on direct communication, Nigeria’s crude output declined to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025. This figure reflected a 0.9 per cent drop from November levels. Yearly, output also fell compared with earlier periods.
Energy experts continue to express concern. Professor Wumi Iledare attributed the decline to insecurity, basin maturity, and weak governance. He stressed that policy inconsistency continues to erode investor confidence. He also warned that the selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act undermines sector leadership.
Despite these challenges, Nigeria still retains strong hydrocarbon potential. However, progress depends on decisive reforms and credible investment signals. Clear leadership and consistent policy execution remain essential for recovery.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s oil output decline underscores the urgency of structural reform. Sustained action could stabilise production and restore confidence across the oil and gas value chain.