- Nigeria’s oil production reached 1.667 mbpd in December 2024, a 7.38% year-on-year increase, but still fell short of OPEC’s 1.5 mbpd quota.
- Despite efforts to boost output, challenges such as pipeline vandalism and oil theft continue to hinder Nigeria’s oil industry and its ability to meet OPEC targets.
Nigeria’s daily average oil production in December 2024 reached 1.667 million barrels per day (mbpd), marking a 7.38% year-on-year increase from the 1.552 mbpd recorded in December 2023. However, despite this improvement, the country’s output failed to meet the production quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which stands at 1.5 mbpd, excluding condensates.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that while oil output increased in December 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, the country’s oil production fell 1.35% from the previous month’s 1.69 Mbps. This drop reflects the ongoing challenges in maintaining consistent output levels despite efforts to ramp up production.
Nigeria produced 51.69 million barrels in December 2024, a slight increase of 1.9% compared to 50.71 million barrels in November 2024. The highest oil output for the month was recorded at Forcados Terminal, which produced 8.49 million barrels, followed by Bonny Terminal with 7.78 million barrels and Qua Iboe with 4.15 million barrels. However, the NUPRC also revealed that when excluding condensate, the daily production rate stood at 1.484 mbpd, further underscoring Nigeria’s struggle to meet OPEC’s target.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, attributed the increase in production to removing regulatory bottlenecks and greater collaboration among stakeholders. Lokpobiri highlighted efforts to boost production in line with President Bola Tinubu’s directive to stabilise and increase oil output to sustainable levels. Despite these efforts, Nigeria’s production has consistently underperformed against OPEC’s targets.
While the increase in output has been hailed as a success, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and illegal refining continue to undermine Nigeria’s oil industry. The government has acknowledged that these illicit activities have contributed to a 5.6% drop in production from the October 2024 peak of 1.8 mbpd, with November 2024 output dipping to 1.7 mbpd. Reports from major oil companies, including Shell, have indicated that illegal activities, such as crude theft and sabotage, cause most spills and production interruptions in the Niger Delta.
Despite these challenges, Nigeria has attracted significant investor interest in its oil and gas sector, bolstered by the Petroleum Industry Act 2021. The 2024 Licensing Round, which saw several new oil and gas assets awarded to international and indigenous companies, reflects renewed confidence in the sector. However, analysts note that Nigeria’s ability to meet its OPEC production quota will depend heavily on overcoming ongoing security challenges and ensuring a more stable operating environment for oil companies.
Nigeria has made progress in increasing its oil production from previous lows, but it continues to fall short of OPEC’s expectations. As the country strives to balance domestic needs with international commitments, it faces an uphill battle in achieving sustainable and economically viable production levels.