- Nigerian crude oil trades above $71 as OPEC+ debates output increases.
- Tinubu highlights reduced reliance on crude while production recovery gathers pace.
Nigerian crude oil prices climbed above $71 per barrel this week, reflecting resilience despite global market volatility. Bonny Light and Brass River settled at $71.4 per barrel at mid-week trading. This performance contrasted with Brent crude, which slipped 1% to $67, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $63.4.
Markets now await the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. The group will likely consider further production increases to reclaim market share. Analysts believe markets adjust well to supply increases during the high-demand third quarter. However, if inventories rise significantly, winter months may test price stability.
OPEC+ agreed to boost the United Arab Emirates’ quota by 300,000 barrels daily. The alliance pledged to increase total production by 2.2 million barrels per day between April and September. Although supply has grown, Middle Eastern oil remains priced higher regionally, supporting confidence among producers such as Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, according to the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude inventories rose by 622,000 barrels in late August. This figure contradicted expectations of a two-million-barrel draw. With official government data due, rising U.S. stockpiles combined with OPEC+ output growth could push Brent closer to $60 in the coming weeks.
President Bola Tinubu stressed that Nigeria is now less dependent on crude oil revenues despite market challenges. He confirmed revenue targets were met in August, mainly driven by non-oil exports. Tinubu further noted that Nigeria achieved this without borrowing, strengthening fiscal confidence.
Nigeria’s state oil company, NNPC Limited, also reported progress against crude oil theft. Security improvements across the Niger Delta have nearly restored pipeline deliveries to full capacity. Theft reduced deliveries to just 30% only three years ago, costing billions in revenue and investment.
Nigeria’s oil regulator forecasts production could exceed 2.5 million barrels per day next year, the highest since 2005. This rebound would restore confidence after years of disruption. At the same time, Nigeria has become India’s leading crude supplier, benefitting from reduced Russian imports. Monthly exports could surpass two million barrels by year-end, strengthening Nigeria’s global position.
Ultimately, Nigerian crude oil remains central to domestic recovery and international energy markets. Yet OPEC+ decisions and U.S. inventory trends will determine whether prices stabilise or decline further.