- Nigeria’s 2023 constitutional reforms empower States to generate, transmit, and regulate electricity, fostering State-level Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs).
- A unified framework with a common data platform from Energy Exemplar ensures compatibility between State and National IRPs.
- The National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) aims to phase out self-generation by 2035 and strengthen the grid for secure, least-cost electricity.
Nigeria is aligning State and National electricity planning following the 2023 constitutional amendments and the Electricity Act 2023. These reforms empower States to generate, transmit, distribute, and regulate electricity. Several States have developed their Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs), marking a shift toward decentralised energy planning.
Energy experts stress the need for a unified framework to prevent fragmentation. The solution involves creating a common data platform using compatible software developed by Energy Exemplar. This platform will ensure smooth coordination between State and National IRPs.
Reinforcing the National Grid for Secure Electricity Supply
While States aim to boost electricity supply, they must avoid adopting an entirely independent approach. Many believe that local electricity generation guarantees supply security, especially given Nigeria’s history of unreliable grid electricity. Decades of insufficient grid power have reinforced this perception.
However, countries with efficient national grids rely on centralised systems for electricity security. Nigeria’s National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) aims to strengthen the grid and provide a secure, least-cost power supply. The NIRP targets reducing the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) from 100 hours per year in 2024 to 24 hours per year by 2035. It also requires 900 MW of spinning reserves to maintain grid stability.
Developing the NIRP Scenario
Stakeholders shaped the NIRP scenario during discussions, starting with a Working Group workshop in Abuja in September 2023. A significant focus involves phasing out self-generation, a standard solution due to unreliable grid supply. Initially, the goal was to complete this transition by 2030, but experts now consider 2035 more realistic.
Similarly, the target for universal electricity access shifted from 2030 to 2035 based on realistic timelines. These considerations led to adopting the Delayed Electrification and Self-Generation phase-out (DESG) scenario for the NIRP. This scenario balances the least-cost solutions while meeting renewable energy supply (RES) targets and Energy Transition Plan (ETP) emission goals.
The NIRP’s generation-only modelling stage tested four sensitivities related to the DESG scenario. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) with negative emissions proved cost-effective, reducing overall DESG scenario costs. Additionally, experts considered bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as a further option for reducing emissions.
As Nigeria advances its electricity planning, the NIRP remains a critical tool. The DESG scenario will guide the country toward a reliable and sustainable energy future by 2035. Collaborative efforts between States and National plans will be key to securing Nigeria’s energy future, ensuring both affordability and reliability for its people.