- Nigeria’s power generation capacity dropped by 13.68% in Q1 2024, with notable decreases at essential plants like Shiroro and Egbin ST.
- The overall plant availability factor fell to 33.53%, indicating over 66% of installed capacity was unavailable.
- Seasonal river flow variations led to significant PAF declines at hydropower plants, affecting overall capacity.
Nigeria’s power generation capacity fell by 13.68% in Q1 2024. The average capacity dropped by 673.16 MW, from 4,922.26 MW in Q4 2023 to 4,249.10 MW in Q1 2024.
Seventeen of the 27 grid-connected plants saw reduced capacities. Notable decreases were at Shiroro (-26.58%), Egbin ST (-21.71%), Ebba (-21.70%), Delta GS (-16.21%), Kainji (-10.64%), and Afam VI (-10.30%).
Some plants increased their capacities. Geregu NIPP rose by 42.65%, Odukpani by 35.75%, Olorunsogo NIPP by 24.21%, and Paras by 20.39%.
The plant availability factor (PAF) measures a plant’s available capacity against its installed capacity. Available capacity changes due to atmospheric conditions and mechanical and feedstock availability.
In Q1 2024, the overall PAF for grid-connected plants was 33.53%, a 5.31 percentage point drop from 38.84% in Q4 2023. Over 66% of installed capacity in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI) was unavailable. This lack of capacity risks the energy supply to consumers.
Nine plants had PAFs above 50%. Azura IPP had the highest PAF at 95.98%. Ihovbor NIPP and Alaoji NIPP had PAFs of 1.23% and 0%, respectively. Alaoji NIPP’s zero PAF was due to gas pressure issues for the second quarter.
Efforts to resolve Alaoji’s gas supply issues include:
- A gas swap arrangement to ensure temporary gas delivery
- Construction of a bypass line to redirect gas flow
- Installation of compressors by the gas supplier to boost gas pressure
Hydropower plants also saw PAF decline. Dadin Kowa fell by 29.44 percentage points, Shiroro by 18.49 points, Ebba by 15.96 points, and Kainji by 6.78 points. These declines are due to seasonal river flow variations.
These issues highlight ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s power sector. Maintaining and improving generation capacities is crucial to meeting the country’s energy needs.