- OPEC forecasts global oil demand will rise to 105.2 million bpd in 2025 and 106.6 million bpd in 2026, driven by transport and industrial growth.
- China, India, and other Asian nations, along with the Middle East and Latin America, will contribute the most to the demand increase.
- OPEC members plan to gradually reintroduce 2.2 million bpd into the market, while oil prices fluctuate around €70 per barrel due to economic uncertainties.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has confirmed its forecast for increasing global oil demand in 2025 and 2026, driven mainly by air and road transport. Oil consumption will reach 105.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 103.75 million bpd in 2024. By 2026, demand will grow further to 106.6 million bpd.
Asia, especially China and India, will account for much of this growth, contributing about 1.3 million bpd. Other key regions include the Middle East and Latin America. Non-OECD countries will experience most of the demand increase, reflecting ongoing growth in their industrial activity.
More vigorous industry, construction, and agriculture activity will also increase oil consumption, further boosting demand. OPEC expects this trend to continue over the next two years.
In February, OPEC member countries raised oil production by 363,000 bpd, bringing output to 41 million bpd. This increase aligns with their phased plan to ease voluntary production cuts. Starting in April, OPEC will reintroduce 2.2 million bpd, which they had cut from the market. The group will reverse the cuts gradually, adding 120,000 bpd each month for 18 months.
OPEC’s production strategy aims to balance supply with rising demand. However, oil prices fluctuate around €70 per barrel due to global economic uncertainties, particularly in the U.S. Concerns about oversupply compared to demand have also impacted prices.
The oil market closely monitors these developments. Price fluctuations reflect ongoing concerns about the balance between supply and demand. As OPEC adjusts its production policy, it influences oil prices and market dynamics.
OPEC’s forecast underscores the growing importance of transport, industry, and agriculture in driving future oil demand. Air and road transport will continue seeing strong growth as economic activity rebounds. Expanding industries, including construction and agriculture, will fuel rising demand, especially in non-OECD countries.
China, India, and other Asian nations will lead the increase in demand as they expand their industries and economies. Middle Eastern and Latin American countries will also contribute to the growth in demand.
OPEC’s decision to increase production responds to growing demand. By gradually easing cuts, OPEC ensures that supply meets demand without creating an oversupply. The group’s careful production management is crucial in maintaining balance in the global oil market.
In conclusion, OPEC projects steady growth in global oil demand, driven by transport and industry. Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America will drive this increase. OPEC’s production strategy, while aiming to balance the market, must also navigate oil price volatility. As demand rises, OPEC remains a key player in shaping the oil market’s future.