- Nigeria utilised only 38% of its installed generation capacity in December 2025.
- Grid instability and gas shortages continue to limit the growth of electricity supply.
Nigeria’s electricity sector ended December 2025 with severe underperformance, as Nigeria’s power generation capacity remained vastly underutilised. Grid-connected power plants operated at only 38% availability during the month. Consequently, actual power supply fell far below installed potential, despite years of reform and heavy investment.
According to a factsheet released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, only 5,151 megawatts of Nigeria’s 13,625 megawatts of installed capacity remained available for dispatch. This outcome represented a 62% shrinkage in usable capacity. Therefore, the gap between installed assets and delivered electricity continued to widen.
Although Nigeria nominally holds sufficient generation capacity, operational constraints persist. Average hourly generation stood at 4,367 megawatt-hours. Meanwhile, the system recorded an average load factor of 85%. This figure shows that operators fully utilised available power, even though availability itself remained constrained.
Furthermore, electricity production remained concentrated among a few stations. The ten largest power plants produced 81 per cent of total output in December. As a result, concerns grew over system resilience and excessive reliance on limited assets.
Hydropower stations delivered stronger performance during the period. Zungeru, Kainji and Jebba recorded high availability levels. Notably, Zungeru operated at full availability while sustaining an 83 per cent load factor. In contrast, several thermal plants struggled to generate power.
Gas shortages, maintenance delays and technical inefficiencies continued to limit thermal output. Some plants recorded single-digit availability. Others, including Alaoji One, Ibom Power One and Trans Amadi One, produced little or no electricity. Consequently, national output suffered during periods of peak demand.
Beyond generation issues, grid instability remained pronounced. The average grid voltage exceeded regulatory limits throughout the month. The lower voltage averaged 302.84 kilovolts, which is below the minimum benchmark. Meanwhile, the upper voltage exceeded the approved ceiling.
Frequency control also weakened significantly. The grid recorded frequencies outside the approved regulatory band. Such deviations signalled operational stress and heightened the risk of system disturbances. Therefore, system operators often constrain generation to protect infrastructure.
These constraints expose the limits of capacity-focused reforms. While Nigeria added generation assets over the past decade, delivery remained weak. Even the $2.3 billion Siemens-led Presidential Power Initiative has yet to close key gaps.
Moreover, market weaknesses persist in undermining confidence. Power producers face payment shortfalls exceeding N4 trillion. Contract enforcement remains weak. As a result, incentives for maintenance and efficiency remain limited.
Despite high utilisation of available power, Nigeria’s power generation capacity remains trapped by poor availability. Until gas supply improves, grid stability strengthens, and market finances recover, output will remain depressed.