- Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments to China will fall to a year-low in April, partly due to Sinopec’s refinery maintenance.
- As OPEC+ plans to raise production, China’s demand will drop, while Russian and Iranian oil supplies will rebound in Asia.
Saudi Arabia is expected to see its crude oil exports to China drop to their lowest level in more than a year in April, Reuters revealed on Thursday, March 13.
This decline comes as Sinopec, China’s state-run oil giant, plans significant maintenance programs at its refineries, reducing its need for crude oil.
According to Reuters data, Saudi Arabia allocated 34 million barrels of crude oil to China in April, a sharp decrease from the 41 million barrels planned for March. This reduction marks a noticeable drop in Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to its largest customer.
Maintenance at Sinopec’s refineries plays a key role in decreasing demand. From mid-March through May, Sinopec will shut down at least 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude refining capacity at its subsidiaries, including the Yangzi, Jiujiang, and Gaoqiao refineries.
These closures are set to disrupt China’s crude oil processing significantly and, in turn, reduce its demand for Saudi oil.
This decline in China’s oil demand comes as OPEC+ plans to raise oil production in April. OPEC and its allies decided to increase production to address global market conditions, but Saudi Arabia’s drop in exports to China underscores the challenges facing the organisation in adjusting to fluctuating demand.
Meanwhile, oil markets in Asia are stabilising after a period of disruption caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil in late 2024 and early 2025. Sources and analysts suggest that China’s Russian Far East crude and Iranian oil imports will rebound in March.
Non-sanctioned tankers, motivated by higher payoffs, have replaced vessels previously under U.S. embargo, helping to stabilise the trade flow.
In India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, Russian oil supplies have also started to recover this month, further shifting global trade patterns.
These developments highlight the ever-changing dynamics of the global oil market. As Saudi Arabia reduces its oil shipments to China, maintenance schedules, geopolitical issues, and shifting market conditions continue to shape energy flows, challenging oil-exporting countries to navigate a complex landscape.