- Shell projects a mixed financial performance across its portfolio for Q2 2025.
- The company’s corporate earnings are forecast to remain negative, between a $0.6 billion and $0.4 billion loss.
Shell projects a mixed financial performance across its portfolio for Q2 2025. The company anticipates weaker earnings in Integrated Gas and Upstream due to lower trading results and scheduled maintenance.
Additionally, the sale of its SPDC assets in Nigeria will contribute to reduced upstream production, now forecasted between 1,660 and 1,760 kboe/d, down from 1,855 kboe/d in Q1.
In Integrated Gas, liquefaction volumes are expected to remain stable between 6.4 to 6.8 million tonnes, but trading profits are set to decline substantially from the previous quarter.
The Chemicals and Products segment is seeing stronger refining margins, improving from $6.2/bbl in Q1 to $8.9/bbl in Q2.
However, this is not expected to translate into stronger earnings due to underperformance in the chemicals sub-segment, which is forecasted to post a loss amid unplanned maintenance at Shell’s Monaca plant in the U.S.
Marketing earnings are expected to improve compared to Q1, supported by steady sales volumes and controlled operating expenses.
Shell’s Renewables and Energy Solutions division is expected to post results between a loss of $0.4 billion and a gain of $0.2 billion, as lower trading contributions offset operational progress.
The company’s corporate earnings are forecast to remain negative, between a $0.6 billion and $0.4 billion loss.
Cash flow from operations is projected to be affected by potential working capital outflows of up to $4 billion and derivative movements.
Shell’s Q2 guidance reflects both structural portfolio shifts and market-driven dynamics. The sale of the SPDC in Nigeria aligns with Shell’s broader strategy to exit challenging onshore oil operations in the Niger Delta, a region fraught with security and environmental risks.
The expected downturn in trading performance is notable as Shell’s trading arm has historically provided a crucial earnings buffer during periods of market volatility. This anticipated decline could weigh on Shell’s ability to offset softer results in other segments.
The positive outlook for refining margins mirrors a broader sector trend, as strong gasoline and diesel demand support downstream profitability. However, chemicals markets remain under pressure, a challenge faced across the industry amid sluggish global growth and capacity overhang. Shell is scheduled to report full Q2 2025 results on July 31, 2025.