- Global energy use will peak by 2045, with renewables making up over 50% of the mix by 2060, according to Sinopec’s first international energy outlook.
- Oil demand will peak by 2030, while hydrogen and CCUS will grow, driving the energy transition.
- China’s emissions will peak before 2030, and non-fossil power generation will overtake fossil fuels by 2035.
China’s oil giant Sinopec released its first international Global Energy Outlook 2060 on April 21 in Riyadh. The outlook forecasts that global energy use will peak in 2045 and decline by 2060.
During its first overseas event dedicated to global energy forecasting, Sinopec launched the report. At the same event, the company also presented the China Energy Outlook 2060 (2025 Edition) and the 2025 China Energy and Chemical Industry Outlook.
The global outlook predicts that primary energy consumption will rise to 26.71 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent by 2045 and then drop to 25.25 billion tonnes by 2060.
Sinopec projects a major shift toward cleaner energy sources. By 2060, renewables will supply 51.8% of global energy. Oil and gas will still provide 35.7% of the total.
The report forecasts oil demand to peak at 4.66 billion tonnes by 2030. Oil will increasingly serve as a raw material for industry, though it will still cover 40% of energy demand in the transport sector by 2060.
Sinopec expects hydrogen to become a dominant energy source. The company projects hydrogen’s share in the energy mix to jump from 2% in 2023 to nearly 50% by 2060, with annual use surpassing 340 million tonnes.
The company also anticipates growth in carbon capture. CCUS capacity could rise from 110 million tonnes in 2030 to 4.7 billion by 2060.
The China Energy Outlook forecasts that China’s energy consumption will level off after 2030, peaking between 6.8 and 7.1 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent.
Sinopec expects China’s oil demand to peak before 2027. By 2035, non-fossil sources will generate more electricity than fossil fuels.
The report also predicts China’s carbon emissions will peak between 10.8 and 11.2 billion tonnes before 2030, keeping the country on track to meet its national climate target.
In the 2025 China Energy and Chemical Industry Outlook, Sinopec forecasts the country’s refining capacity to peak between 960 and 970 million tonnes per year by 2025.
However, the company warns of overcapacity in the chemical sector. It expects an oversupply of olefins and aromatics, while bulk chemical production will stay high.
Sinopec Chairman Ma Yongsheng emphasised the importance of global cooperation. “This joint publication strengthens the foundation for international cooperation in the energy and chemical industries,” he said.
With these reports, Sinopec aims to boost China’s role in shaping global energy trends. The outlook highlights a shift toward renewables while acknowledging the continued role of oil, gas, hydrogen, and carbon capture in the energy transition.