- Eskom introduced load-shedding in 2007, making it 16 years of consistent load-shedding.
- The Eskom report factored in two Eskom plant generation assumptions: low and high Energy Availability Factors.
South Africa will face at least five more years of load-shedding despite a recent positive run of nine days without power cuts in October 2023. Eskom warned in its latest Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2024–2028 report. As reported by Daily Investor, Eskom’s electricity generation resources will be unable to meet South Africa’s forecasted demand in the next five years. This is assuming a very moderate 0.64 per cent electricity demand increase, which in and of itself is too low.
The Eskom report factored in two Eskom plant generation assumptions: low and high Energy Availability Factors (EAF). Essentially, this explains how much generation capacity Eskom might have if things go badly and go well. A low EAF will result in a declining performance, averaging 50 per cent EAF till 2028. Meanwhile, high EAF will improve to 66 per cent in 2024, climbing by 0.5 per cent annually to 68 per cent by 2028.
Low EAF will result in severe load-shedding in future, but neither scenario achieves the system adequacy metric of 20 GWh. The High EAF scenario comes closest to adequacy, with manageable ranges. This includes using burning diesel for Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGT) 6 per cent yearly, which is within the acceptable range by the energy regulator NERSA.
Significantly, if the state utility doesn’t roll out new generation capacity in time, Eskom and the country will be heading for Low EAF and more than five years of load-shedding. The report recommends that Eskom focus on five major initiatives: EAF improvements, continued operation of older generation power plants, new build levers, all possible efforts to alleviate grid constraints and extend the life of the Koeberg nuclear power station in the Western Cape. Eskom first introduced load shedding in 2007, making it 16 of consistent load shedding.