- Electric vehicles will make up about half of all passenger vehicles by 2040
- This growth will be driven by policy support in Europe and Asia as well as increased cost-competitiveness of EVs compared to fossil fuel vehicles.
- Municipal transport will be the present the largest use for electric-powered cars as the percentage of EVs used for municipal transport services is expected to double by 2040.
BloombergNEF, in its latest Long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook report, has highlighted what path it believes the electric vehicle (EV) market will take in the coming years. According to the report, EVs will make up about 10 per cent of all worldwide passenger vehicle sales in 2025 up from 3 per cent currently. The number is expected to rise to 28 per cent in 2030 and 58 per cent in 2040.
This rise will not be limited to new vehicle sales. EVs will make up 31 per cent of all cars on the road by 2040. BloombergNEF predicts that municipal transport use would account for the largest percentage increase in EV adoption as 67 per cent of municipal buses would be power by electricity in 2040, up from 33 per cent currently. This increase will largely be driven by the favourable policies and the price competitiveness of EVs compared to fossil-fuel vehicles expected to happen in 2022.
This ramp-up will be driven by European and Asian markets, as Europe and China will represent 72 per cent of all passenger EV sales by 2030. For some countries, like the US, the EV adoption rate will be lower compared to Europe and China as the projections of available charging infrastructure looks limited. In South Korea, strong government policy support, as well as technological innovation in the domestic auto and battery industry, will help drive EV adoption. The Japanese EV market is not expected to take off until 2025.
Despite these gains, fossil-fuel-powered vehicles are expected to drive more miles globally by 2040 when compared to EVs.