- The U.S. will install 32 GW of solar in 2024, driven by developers rushing to complete projects before tariffs return.
- Solar panel imports surged in 2024, with Vietnam leading at 32.5%, followed by Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and India.
- Despite expected tariff and political uncertainties, solar energy costs will drop, and the U.S. solar market is set to grow by 6.6% annually between 2025 and 2030.
The U.S. will install 32 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar in 2024, setting a new record, according to the American Clean Power Association (ACP). This surge highlights the growing role of renewable energy in the nation’s power mix.
The upcoming expiration of a tariff moratorium in December 2024 drives this boom. Developers rush to complete projects before the deadline to avoid higher costs. Sam Huntington, Director of North American Power at Commodity Insights, said, “Developers are pushing projects forward to beat the moratorium, making 2024 a standout year for solar.”
Solar panel imports soared in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 15 GW. Vietnam leads as the top supplier, contributing 32.5% of these imports. Other significant suppliers include Thailand (23%), Malaysia (13.4%), Cambodia (11.8%), and India (8.4%).
Asian countries also dominate the supply of solar cells, a key panel component. Malaysia accounts for 37.3% of solar cell imports, followed by Thailand (27.6%) and South Korea (19.9%). U.S. developers rely heavily on these imports to meet growing demand.
The solar market faces potential challenges in 2025. New tariffs could raise solar module prices. U.S.-assembled Topcon modules now cost between 27 and 30 cents per watt, but experts expect prices to rise due to tariffs and political uncertainty.
Changes to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) under a new administration could also impact the market. However, the long-term outlook remains strong. ACP projects the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar plants will drop from $46 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2024 to $38/MWh by 2030, driven by cheaper polysilicon and improved technology.
Despite expected challenges, the U.S. solar market will continue to grow. Experts forecast a 16% drop in installations in 2025 due to 2024’s pull-forward effect. However, the market will rebound, growing at an average annual rate of 6.6% between 2025 and 2030.
Tariff changes and political shifts will not stop solar energy’s growth. The U.S. solar industry will remain competitive and continue its role in the nation’s renewable energy transition.
In summary, 2024 will mark a record year for U.S. solar installations, driven by a rush to complete projects before tariffs return. Massive imports from Asia will help meet demand, but rising costs and political uncertainty could slow growth in 2025.
Nonetheless, long-term prospects for U.S. solar energy remain bright, with falling costs and continued expansion expected to support the country’s shift toward renewables. Solar power will be vital in this transition, even as the market navigates future challenges.