- Energy experts say petrol and diesel prices in Nigeria could rise if global crude oil prices surge above $90 per barrel due to escalating US–Iran tensions.
- They warn that Nigeria’s reliance on imported crude and exposure to global pricing leave consumers vulnerable despite local refining capacity.
Energy experts and downstream operators have warned that Nigeria could record another increase in petrol and diesel prices if global crude oil prices rise above $90 per barrel. They linked the risk to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which have renewed volatility in the international market.
The Middle East crisis has already unsettled traders. Consequently, oil prices climbed sharply over the weekend on fears of supply disruption.
Across major Nigerian cities, petrol currently sells between ₦824 and ₦880 per litre. The variation reflects location and logistics costs. Recently, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its Premium Motor Spirit gantry price by ₦25 per litre. In February 2026, it lowered the ex-depot rate from ₦799 to ₦774 per litre.
However, analysts caution that the relief may be temporary. If tensions intensify, prices could surge again. In particular, any sustained disruption around the Strait of Hormuz would inject additional risk premiums. The route carries more than 20 per cent of global oil shipments. Therefore, threats to the corridor typically push prices higher.
As of 10 pm on Sunday, March 1, Brent crude traded at $72.87 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate stood at $67.02, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light sold at $78.62. Earlier, Brent had jumped nearly 10 per cent to about $80. Analysts projected that prices could approach $90 or even $100 if the conflict escalates.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Chief Executive Officer of Dairy Hills, said Nigeria remains exposed to global pricing. He explained that the refinery imports a significant share of its crude feedstock. On average, it processes about 18 million barrels monthly. Of that volume, roughly 12 million barrels are imported, while only 5.7 million barrels come from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
Emmanuel argued that higher crude prices would raise cracking margins. As a result, the refinery would adjust refined product prices. He also noted that rising war risk insurance premiums would increase landing costs. Therefore, he concluded that crude above $90 per barrel would likely trigger higher PMS and diesel prices.
Olatide Jeremiah, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said Nigeria’s reliance on imported crude and products keeps it vulnerable. Although Nigeria hosts Africa’s largest refinery and leads in crude production, global swings still influence domestic pricing.
Jeremiah added that sourcing all crude locally under the Petroleum Industry Act would cushion prices through naira-denominated transactions. However, more than 60 per cent of refinery feedstock still comes from abroad. About 40 per cent of refined products are also imported. He warned that pump prices may rise if oil surges.
He urged the Federal Government to boost crude output and curb oil theft. Nigeria currently produces about 1.5 million barrels per day, roughly half its potential. Higher production, he argued, would strengthen domestic refining and improve energy security.
Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, said subsidy removal has exposed consumers to global volatility. He explained that oil markets operate on supply and demand fundamentals. Therefore, threats in the Middle East directly affect Nigeria’s deregulated pump prices.
Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare urged restraint. He said today’s oil market is more diversified than during the 1973 embargo or the Gulf War. While tensions may add temporary risk premiums, broader fundamentals still determine long-term prices.
Meanwhile, Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said marketers are monitoring developments. He confirmed that international price movements affect local supply decisions. However, he assured Nigerians of steady distribution as long as products remain available.
The crisis escalated after coordinated strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel. Former US President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed, although the wider conflict continues to evolve.
Members of the OPEC+ alliance announced a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day effective in April. The eight-member V8 group includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. While the group plans to raise output, analysts warned that the increase may not offset supply risks if the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption.
Experts agree that Nigeria remains exposed to global oil shocks despite progress in local refining. They stress the need to raise crude production, curb theft and prioritise domestic supply to protect consumers from future volatility.