- The US solar industry targets 502 GWdc by 2035, but political risks threaten growth.
- The manufacturing boom is underway, with the US module capacity set to reach 144 GW by 2027.
- Policy uncertainty and rising energy demand could slow project development and investments.
The United States (US) solar industry plans to add 502 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of new capacity by 2035. Wood Mackenzie released this forecast, projecting average yearly additions of more than 40 GWdc.
Sylvia Leyva Martinez, Principal Analyst for North American Utility-Scale Solar at Wood Mackenzie, shared the outlook at the Solar and Energy Storage Summit. She said yearly solar installations will range between 41 GWdc and 50 GWdc through 2035.
Martinez warned that political uncertainty could threaten the industry’s growth. “Our forecasts show a 24% upside in a high scenario and a 25% downside in a low scenario compared to our base case,” she said.
She pointed to uncertainties around the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other key policies. The IRA, signed in 2022, boosted clean energy investment. Any rollback or change to the law could slow project timelines and shake investor confidence.
The solar manufacturing sector continues to grow rapidly. Companies expect US module manufacturing capacity to jump from 17 GW in 2023 to 144 GW by 2027. Wafer and cell production will also expand, strengthening domestic supply chains.
Martinez said manufacturers expanded capacity quickly over the past three years. However, she warned that complex trade policies could slow new investments. Tariffs and trade disputes increase the risks for companies planning new factories.
She also flagged rising energy demand as a significant concern. Martinez said the country could face a shortage of gas turbines by 2029. A shortage could create problems balancing the power grid as solar and storage projects grow.
Martinez added that political shifts could change the clean energy landscape. Changes in government could affect tariffs, tax credits, and renewable energy targets.
“The Trump administration will need to balance its ambitions in artificial intelligence and data centres with energy reality,” Martinez said. AI and data centre growth have increased electricity demand, stressing the energy system.
She also said solar project developers face competition for resources. High demand for materials, labour shortages, and rising interest rates could delay projects.
Despite these risks, Martinez remained optimistic. Wood Mackenzie’s base-case outlook assumes steady policy support and ongoing technology improvements. She urged developers and investors to stay cautious and prepare for all scenarios.
“Market conditions can shift quickly,” she said. “Everyone must plan for both upside and downside risks.”
Martinez said the solar industry’s success depends on clear policies, faster permitting, and a stronger manufacturing base. She added that the next administration’s energy stance will shape the industry’s future.
Strong fundamentals support long-term growth, but Martinez warned that rising risks could complicate progress. She said industry leaders must stay focused and flexible to deliver the projected 502 GWdc by 2035.