- WMO and IRENA reported that climate variability is now directly shaping renewable power performance and electricity demand.
- The report urged governments to integrate climate intelligence and seasonal forecasting into energy planning to strengthen system resilience.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency have reported that climate variability and long-term climate change are increasingly affecting the performance and reliability of renewable energy systems worldwide. Their 2024 Year in Review highlights how climate conditions are now shaping solar, wind and hydropower output as well as energy demand.
The report notes that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures around 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. Climate-driven global energy demand rose by 4 percent compared with the 1991–2020 average. Global renewable energy capacity also surpassed 4,400 gigawatts, which has intensified the interaction between climate signals and energy systems.
The findings align with efforts to meet the COP28 UAE Consensus. Countries have agreed to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said climate variability has become a defining operational factor for the energy sector and must be integrated into planning and investment decisions.
The report indicates that heat extremes, rainfall variability, and changing atmospheric patterns are now impacting the performance of wind, solar, and hydropower assets. Analysts used four indicators: wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy. Residual El Niño conditions, combined with record ocean heat and long-term warming, created sharp regional contrasts.
Southern Africa experienced increases of 8 to 16 per cent in wind capacity factors and 2 to 6 per cent in solar. Hydropower output remained below average for a third consecutive year, while energy demand reached record levels. South Asia also experienced deficits in wind and solar output, accompanied by sharp increases in cooling demand, with anomalies reaching 16 per cent in October. East Africa benefited from above-average rainfall and stronger hydropower output. Meanwhile, parts of South America saw reduced hydropower performance and elevated demand due to hot and dry conditions.
The report also assessed seasonal climate forecasts for the first time. Forecasts from the ECMWF system successfully anticipated anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months in advance. Early warnings issued in mid-2024 accurately predicted above-average energy demand and below-average solar potential in several African regions.
Furthermore, WMO and IRENA said early climate intelligence can support load management, reservoir operations, infrastructure scheduling and cross-border electricity trade. They argue that such tools could reduce volatility in supply and demand as renewable penetration increases.
The report identifies implications for policy and investment. It recommends that governments strengthen climate-informed planning, expand climate services, integrate seasonal forecasting into energy decisions and design climate-resilient energy targets aligned with the Paris Agreement and the COP28 Global Stocktake.
IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said the global energy transition remains unstoppable but must be grounded in climate reality. He also said climate variability must inform investment and energy security decisions to ensure renewable capacity delivers reliable power.
The report concludes that bridging meteorology and energy planning will become essential as renewable deployment accelerates worldwide.