At the 9th anniversary and 108th edition of Nextier Power Dialogue, energy experts, regulators, and stakeholders gathered to dissect Nigeria’s readiness for large-scale renewable energy integration, spotlighting both technical feasibility and economic viability.
The session, titled “Pre-empting Resilience for Accelerated Renewable Energy Scaling,” was sponsored by The African Climate Foundation (ACF) and hosted by The Electricity Hub in collaboration with Nextier.
The panel, moderated by Olayemi Arowolo, Manager, Policy and Research, Nextier, featured notable speakers, including Dr Yusuf Ali, Commissioner, Planning, Research and Strategy, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC); Engr. Emmanuel Ogwuche, Chief Regulatory and Efficiency Officer, Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC) and Engr. Moses Ezirim, Technical Pre-sale and System Solutions Manager, West Africa, JA Solar.
Resilient Renewable Future
Busayo Omofe, a consultant with Nextier, while presenting the report, Pre-empting Resilience for Accelerated Renewable Energy Scaling, thanked ACF for sponsoring the project and the 108th Power Dialogue.
Omofe noted that the project seeks to evaluate the feasibility of renewable integration in Nigeria’s national grid. She stated that the project aims to understand the grid’s performance and what is required to ensure renewable energy acceleration, especially in unserved and underserved communities. She added that the project also seeks to equip the sector stakeholders with the necessary skills required for renewable energy integration.
During her presentation, the Nextier consultant highlighted some of the report’s content, including an overview of the prospects, current grid performance and key grid challenges, technology and institutional reforms, the 2023 Electricity Act’s focus on decentralisation, renewable energy performance in Nigeria, and renewable energy integration.
Feasibility Meets Reform
While giving his remarks, Dr. Ali stated that the feasibility of integrating large-scale variable renewable energy (VRE), such as solar and wind, into Nigeria’s national grid relies on both technical and economic factors. He explained that the technical feasibility primarily relates to the quality of the network, emphasising that a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is essential for high-level VRE integration without compromising grid stability.
The NERC Commissioner highlighted that from an economic standpoint, the key question is identifying the commercially viable demand to absorb additional generation. While acknowledging the common argument that Nigeria needs to increase generation, he cautioned that current data raises concerns about justifying new investments in generation at this time.
Dr. Ali also questioned the cost competitiveness of VRE technologies in Nigeria. He stressed that while the country should maintain ambitious goals, it must not lose sight of foundational energy needs. He recommended planning the system to meet near-term demands to create a solid base for future progress.
On ongoing reforms at both the national and state levels to support grid-connected VRE integration, the NERC Commissioner referred to the World Bank-supported Delta Project of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). He noted that the SCADA component of the project is expected to be completed by June 2026, covering 175 out of 230 substations and delivering approximately 80 per cent visibility and control of the system.
Dr. Ali further mentioned that the World Bank is exploring the integration of machine learning functionalities into the SCADA system to simulate the remaining 20 per cent of system coverage.
Dr. Yusuf added that another significant reform supporting VRE integration is the Nigerian Integrated Energy Strategy and Planning (NIESP), which outlines the future supply mix and prioritises renewable energy. Once implemented, NIESP is expected to catalyse the policy objectives already envisioned by decision-makers.
He also pointed to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as another tool aiding VRE integration. According to him, the IRP helps translate theoretical concepts into practical models. It has been submitted to the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) for review and will help define the country’s least-cost electrification plan. The plan includes renewable energy components that will be regularly tested to determine their practical viability.
Economics of Renewable Energy Integration
In his opening statement, Engr. Ogwuche assessed the economic viability of integrating hybrid energy projects into Nigeria’s national grid. He explained that the cost—or economies of scale—of energy is benchmarked against several factors, primarily production costs.
From this, one can determine the least-cost energy option and compare it with other sources to evaluate whether a particular energy pathway is the most efficient. He added that the capital expenditure component involves analysing the cost of equipment as well as operational expenses.
Furthermore, the Chief Regulatory and Efficiency Officer highlighted that before reaching this stage, a preliminary assessment must be conducted, which also incurs costs. This includes a solar-based feasibility study across different seasons to determine the viability of the energy source. The study would establish the base fuel capacity engineers need to determine the appropriate equipment for deployment.
However, he noted that Nigeria currently lacks reliable data to identify optimal locations for renewable energy plants, making it difficult to answer questions about economic viability. He pointed out that the per-unit cost of introducing renewable energy assets remains high compared to the already established thermal and hydro sources. Therefore, from a purely economic perspective, renewable energy is presently more expensive and less attractive than conventional options.
Consequently, Engr. Ogwuche emphasised the need for government intervention, particularly in setting up renewable energy zones and providing subsidies. He explained that within an economic framework, large-scale solar projects in the commercial and industrial sectors—if structured financially over 18 to 20 years—can yield profitability. In contrast, wind energy remains unproven, as the only operational wind farm in Katsina lacks a commercially viable model at present.
Additionally, he argued that, based on a desktop analysis, renewable energy integration can only become economically viable with significant subsidy support for cost components. He reiterated that the current grid, dominated by thermal and hydro sources, is more economical for offtakers. While VRE contributes positively to environmental sustainability, its high cost means it is not yet the preferred energy generation option in Nigeria.
Regarding practical financing models that could support the feasibility and sustainability of large-scale VRE integration into the grid, Engr. Ogwuche identified three key models: public-private partnerships (PPP), Independent Power Producers (IPPs), and government subsidies.
He explained that IPPs are currently the most prevalent model, involving private sector players who partner to support grid integration by addressing supply shortfalls, especially at the distribution level. He added that PPPs are typically suited for large-scale power projects where the government collaborates with investors to reduce production costs. This could include incentives such as land provision, financial rebates, or tax holidays.
Finally, the Chief Regulatory and Efficiency Officer noted that government-backed financial instruments, such as bonds used to guarantee loans, could further enhance access to financing and improve the viability of renewable energy projects in the country.
Grid Innovation Strategy
In response to a question on which grid technologies, such as smart meters, energy storage, and SCADA, should be prioritised for effective renewable energy integration, Engr. Ezirm stated that the first critical step is conducting a comprehensive grid assessment. This involves analysing the network infrastructure, including transformers, cables, voltage drops, and Ring Main Units (RMUs), through a detailed grid study.
Following this assessment, he stressed that battery storage systems should be introduced to address intermittency and prevent grid collapse. Explaining the mechanism, he noted that when generation exceeds load demand, instead of allowing frequency fluctuations, battery storage can absorb excess energy and release it when demand increases, thereby maintaining grid stability. Once battery storage is prioritised, the system can scale up with additional renewable sources like solar.
Moreover, he stressed the need for SCADA systems, pointing out that accurate and timely data is crucial for system monitoring, theft prevention, investor confidence, and reducing Aggregate, Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses. He added that smart meters should be implemented to support these goals and ensure energy usage and billing transparency.
Additionally, the Technical Pre-Sale and System Solutions Manager at JA Solar noted that partnership is vital for progress. He emphasised that state governments and regulators must work closely with private sector players by setting clear roadmaps, including targeting the deployment of 100 megawatts within a year. He suggested that these targets be replicated at the state level to ensure widespread progress.
Furthermore, Engr. Ezirm pointed out that excessive bureaucracy, particularly lengthy paperwork, frequent meetings, and numerous committees, should be minimised to encourage faster action. He highlighted the limited number of private players in Nigeria’s energy sector and argued that more would be attracted if the market were liberalised and subsidies removed. To that end, he advocated for cost-reflective and multi-tiered tariff systems. Innovation, he stressed, is essential for unlocking the market’s full potential.
Meanwhile, Engr. Moses urged states, now empowered to propose their own electricity laws, to ensure policies are clearly defined and inclusive. He recommended eliminating licensing requirements for small-scale developers so that individuals, such as homeowners, can generate their own electricity using solar. He emphasised that supportive policies should also extend to these decentralised energy producers.
Monitoring Renewable Integration
For her part, Olayemi Arowolo highlighted that Nigeria’s energy infrastructure is ageing and stressed the urgent need for significant investment in the transmission network. She explained that before VRE can be integrated into the grid, systems must be in place to monitor what is being injected. Unlike conventional power generation, VRE sources require more precise and dynamic oversight.
Furthermore, the Policy and Research Manager at Nextier emphasised that such monitoring must include current, voltage, and frequency parameters. She argued that implementing an advanced SCADA system in Nigeria should no longer be optional, as the grid requires real-time visibility and control. An advanced SCADA system, she explained, would provide the necessary insight into grid performance, enabling better management of VRE integration.
In addition, Arowolo addressed the importance of collaboration, stating that neither the government nor the private sector can achieve these goals alone. Instead, public-private partnerships are essential, and deliberate efforts must be made to ensure such partnerships are effectively established and sustained.
As Nigeria faces increasing pressure to transition to cleaner and more resilient energy sources, the moment calls for decisive and bold action. Accordingly, stakeholders, including government bodies, the private sector, and civil society, must align efforts around smart grid investments, clear policy frameworks, and sustainable financing models.
The roadmap to a greener and more inclusive power sector is well-defined: modernise the national grid, attract private capital, and strengthen technical expertise. Ultimately, the future of Nigeria’s energy independence and long-term economic prosperity hinges on these critical steps.