- Oil prices in a tight range show markets balancing rising production against Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions.
- Traders await OPEC+ decisions and U.S. economic data for further direction.
Oil prices in a tight range reflected market uncertainty on Monday. Traders weighed rising output and U.S. tariff impacts against Russia-Ukraine supply disruptions. Brent crude slipped by 30 cents to $67.18 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell by 28 cents to $63.73. Trading activity was limited due to a U.S. bank holiday.
Tensions in Eastern Europe continued to influence sentiment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed further strikes deep inside Russia. His pledge followed Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian power facilities. Both nations have intensified airstrikes, targeting energy infrastructure and affecting Russian oil exports.
Market analysts also reported declining shipments from Russian ports. Exports dropped to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day. However, Russian oil flows to India are expected to rise in September despite U.S. secondary tariffs. Consequently, attention has turned to a planned meeting between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in China. Analysts believe U.S. pressure may shape outcomes.
At the same time, a Reuters poll suggested a limited upside for crude oil this year. Rising output from leading producers increases the risk of surplus. U.S. tariff threats further weigh on demand growth. In June, U.S. crude production hit a record 13.58 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, manufacturing data from Asia added mixed signals. China’s factory activity grew unexpectedly in August, while Japan and South Korea reported weakness. As a result, the region’s fragile recovery remains clouded by U.S. tariffs.
In addition, Brent and WTI posted their first monthly decline in four months during August, dropping over 6%. Investors now await the OPEC+ meeting on September 7 for direction on supply policies.
With oil prices in a tight range, investors also look to U.S. labour market data this week. The report will provide insight into economic health and test confidence in possible interest rate cuts.