- Middle East and North Africa’s electricity demand surges as cooling and desalination drive 40 per cent of growth.
- Solar and nuclear expansion will cut reliance on fossil fuels and strengthen long-term energy security.
The Middle East and North Africa’s electricity demand continues to surge as populations, economies, and infrastructure expand across the region. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electricity use has tripled since 2000. By 2035, demand will rise by 50 per cent, matching the present consumption of Germany and Spain combined.
Nearly 40 per cent of this growth will come from cooling and desalination, which reflect extreme heat and widespread water scarcity. At the same time, industrialisation, urbanisation, transport electrification, and digital infrastructure expansion add more pressure on electricity systems.
Natural gas and oil currently dominate generation, providing over 90 per cent of output. However, governments are pushing to reduce oil-fired power. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, for example, are cutting oil use to increase exports and support higher-value applications.
By 2035, natural gas will supply half of the additional electricity demand. Oil-fired generation will decline to only 5 per cent, down from 20 per cent today. Renewable energy and nuclear will also expand sharply. Solar PV capacity could increase tenfold, raising renewables’ share to 25 per cent. Nuclear power is expected to triple, further diversifying supply sources.
Investment in the power sector reached $44 billion in 2024. By 2035, investment will rise by another 50 per cent, with 40 per cent focused on grid upgrades. Modernised grids and stronger interconnections will cut losses and improve electricity security across the Middle East and North Africa.
Still, risks remain. If diversification slows, oil and gas demand for power could increase by 25 per cent by 2035. That outcome would reduce export revenues by $80 billion and raise import bills by $20 billion.
Therefore, continuous investment, improved efficiency, and flexible power systems remain essential. Without these measures, the electricity demand in the Middle East and North Africa could undermine energy security, fiscal stability, and environmental sustainability.