- NUPRC’s oil theft report confirms that crude theft fell from 102,900 barrels daily in 2021 to 9,600 barrels in 2025.
- The Commission argues the trillion-naira claim relied on wrong exchange rates and ignored factual verification.
The Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) oil theft report has sparked debate after The PUNCH alleged Nigeria lost N8.4 trillion to crude theft in four years. NUPRC rejected the claim, stressing that the figures distorted reality and lacked proper context.
On Wednesday, the Commission clarified that it released crude loss data between 2021 and July 2025 under the Petroleum Industry Act. It emphasised that the disclosure promoted transparency, not sensational headlines. NUPRC explained that crude theft fell sharply, dropping from 102,900 barrels daily in 2021 to 9,600 barrels in 2025. That figure marked a 90% reduction and the lowest theft level since 2009.
Additionally, the Commission criticised the trillion-naira estimate. It noted that the report inflated losses using an exchange rate of N1,500 to $1. In contrast, the official rate stayed below N430 during most of the theft period and averaged about N600 until mid-2023. NUPRC insisted that comparing the inflated figure to the 2025 budget misled readers.
Moreover, the Commission highlighted data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.23%. It explained that oil output drove much of the growth, proving that its anti-theft measures had succeeded.
The Commission also faulted the report for failing to seek clarification before publication. It stressed that Nigeria continues to meet its OPEC quota through initiatives such as Project One Million Barrels, metering audits, alternative evacuation systems, and improved rig counts.
Finally, NUPRC confirmed that Nigeria has the technical capacity to produce more than two million barrels daily. It continues to work with operators, financiers, and host communities to unlock greater output and build a stable environment.
By rejecting the misleading report, the Commission reinforced its commitment to transparency, accuracy, and fairness in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.