- The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that new policies in the United States and China will cause global renewable energy growth to fall short of the 2030 goal.
- The agency projects only a 4,600 GW increase in renewable capacity by 2030, down from 5,500 GW previously forecast.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, October 6, that global renewable energy expansion is losing momentum as the United States and China roll back supportive policies, putting the world off course to triple renewable capacity by 2030.
The Paris-based agency cut its forecast for renewable growth to 4,600 gigawatts (GW), 2.6 times the 2022 level, from an earlier estimate of 5,500 GW. The IEA attributed the downgrade to “policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024.”
The agency reduced its U.S. outlook by nearly 50% after President Donald Trump’s administration ended tax credits early and tightened regulations on renewable projects. It said China’s switch from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions reduced project profitability and slowed investment.
Despite slower growth, the IEA said China still leads global renewable expansion and will achieve its 2035 wind and solar goals five years ahead of schedule.
The agency said India remains on track to meet its 2030 target and will likely become the second-largest growth market, with capacity expected to rise 2.5 times in five years. It raised projections for the Middle East, North Africa, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain.
The IEA said solar power drove 80% of renewable growth over the past five years, followed by wind, hydropower, biomass and geothermal energy. It cut its forecast for offshore wind, citing U.S. policy reversals that halted several projects under construction.
The agency said renewables help countries reduce fuel imports and strengthen energy security. However, it urged governments to expand grid flexibility to handle intermittent power supply. It expects renewables to supply 30% of global electricity by 2030, double their current share.