- Nigeria requires between $17 billion and $29.3 billion to fund its gas transition and infrastructure expansion.
- Renaissance Capital expects more IOC exits and stronger local participation to lift oil output above 2 million bpd by 2026.
Renaissance Capital has stated that Nigeria must raise about $29.3 billion to fund its gas transition. The firm estimated that the country needs between $17 billion and $29.3 billion to meet its gas transition goals. It explained that policy reforms are progressing, yet poor infrastructure hinders growth.
Renaissance Capital revealed that supporting the gas transition demands heavy investment, excluding the already completed Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals. It said crude oil evacuation facilities for exports and local refining offer quicker financial returns. However, gas infrastructure requires more profound and complex investment.
Scattered gas reserves across Nigeria drive up evacuation costs and make coordination essential. At the same time, weak domestic manufacturing demand reduces local gas consumption. Without demand-focused initiatives, much of the gas will continue to flow abroad instead of supporting local industries.
The company identified cost efficiency and faster cash conversion cycles as key drivers for gas production growth. It emphasised that operators can repurpose existing oil fields and infrastructure to process and sell compressed or liquefied natural gas. This approach reduces costs and attracts both investors and producers.
Furthermore, Renaissance Capital observed that global investors are more interested in gas projects. Government efforts now align with these interests, promoting policy reforms and new opportunities for gas use in power generation and manufacturing.
The firm predicted further divestments by international oil companies (IOCs) and joint ventures involving the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC). Indigenous operators, it said, now have the capacity to buy assets, expand production, and boost local participation in the sector.
Nigeria’s oil and gas outlook remains positive despite global price instability. Structural reforms, better governance, and renewed investment strengthen industry confidence. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) now offers fiscal transparency, encouraging new exploration and project development.
Increased refining capacity and improved pipelines will enhance energy security and reduce fuel imports. Moreover, the steady rise in active rig counts since mid-2025 reflects strong investor confidence. These developments position Nigeria for a more resilient and productive oil and gas future.