- India’s 500 GW clean energy goal could make coal power in India peak before 2030, marking a significant shift toward sustainable growth.
- Sustained renewable growth beyond is key to keeping emissions down.
According to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), coal power in India could reach its highest level by 2030. The study suggests that if China maintains its clean energy momentum and India and Indonesia meet their renewable targets, power-sector emissions in all three nations could decline within the decade.
The report notes that coal use and emissions will peak once renewable growth consistently surpasses the rise in electricity demand. This moment would represent a key milestone in global climate efforts. In 2024, China, India, and Indonesia accounted for 73% of global coal consumption. Therefore, a fall in their coal use would have global consequences, affecting both emissions and economies reliant on coal exports.
“China has already added enough clean power generation to meet all new demand growth,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, Co-founder and Lead Analyst at CREA. “Coal use and emissions have been falling since 2024. Although progress may vary, maintaining this clean energy growth makes a coal power peak inevitable.”
In India, progress remains strong. Manoj Kumar, an analyst at CREA, said, “Meeting Prime Minister Modi’s 500 GW non-fossil target could make coal power in India peak before 2030. The country has already passed the halfway mark ahead of schedule. However, improving grid flexibility, energy storage, and transmission is vital to sustain progress and keep electricity reliable and affordable.”
Indonesia is also moving forward. President Subianto’s 100 GW solar plan could help the country’s coal use peak by 2030. Yet, short-term expansion of fossil fuels still poses challenges. Katherine Hasan of CREA explained, “The real task is turning this solar vision into a clear roadmap that allows clean energy to lead new capacity.”
However, CREA warns that continued coal expansion could slow the transition. A delayed or uneven decline after 2030 may cause stagnation or even a rebound in coal use. Therefore, investment in renewables and power market reforms remains essential.
If renewable growth continues beyond 2030, millions of tonnes of CO₂ emissions could be avoided yearly. This saving would equal India’s 2019 carbon output, a defining step toward a cleaner, more resilient global energy future.