- The IEA’s 2025 World Energy Outlook predicts strong growth in renewable energy but rising fossil fuel demand under a business-as-usual scenario.
- Experts warn that the Current Policies Scenario overestimates the use of fossil fuels, underestimates the use of renewables, and risks global economic and climate stability.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted strong global growth in renewables over the next 25 years. Still, it projected rising demand for oil and gas under a business-as-usual scenario, drawing criticism from climate and energy experts.
In its World Energy Outlook 2025, the IEA stated that its Current Policies Scenario (CPS), based on existing regulations, anticipates fossil fuel demand to continue growing beyond 2030, driven by U.S. policies that favour gas and relatively low prices. The report positions the United States as the world’s largest oil and gas producer through 2050, citing concerns over energy security.
Scientists and policy experts called the scenario politically motivated and out of step with current market trends. Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the CPS “does not reflect reality” and risks locking investors into a fossil fuel-centred economy. Dave Jones of Ember and Maria Pastukhova of E3G warned that relying on fossil fuels exposes economies to price volatility, high costs, and geopolitical risk.
The IEA stated that China will continue to dominate global renewable deployment, accounting for 45–60% of new installations, but flagged risks from trade barriers and oversupply. Meanwhile, India, Indonesia, and other Southeast Asian countries are expected to lead coal and fossil fuel demand.
Despite the projections, climate leaders urged faster action. Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, said, “Oil demand is on track to peak before 2030. Every tonne of carbon we avoid today saves far greater costs tomorrow. We must accelerate the energy transition or pay later.”