- BMI forecast: Nigeria oil output to reach 1.73 million bpd in 2026, reflecting gains from midstream upgrades and smaller field production.
- The oil output will benefit from continued refinery operations and improved security measures, positioning the country as a more stable investment destination.
Nigeria’s oil production is expected to rise in 2026. The increase will come from infrastructure improvements and higher output from smaller fields. This projection comes from a recent outlook by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, titled “Rebound in Domestic Demand Will Drive Nigerian Economy in 2026.”
BMI expects total liquid hydrocarbons to average 1.73 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. This represents a 1.9% rise from the estimated 1.70 million bpd in 2025. It also exceeds Nigeria’s official OPEC production quota of 1.50 million bpd. Despite this, Nigeria has struggled to consistently meet its quota. According to Nairametrics, the country missed its target for the third consecutive month. The last time Nigeria met the quota was in July 2025.
Crude oil output rose only slightly in October. Production increased to 1.401 million bpd from 1.39 million bpd in September. OPEC data shows Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in Q3 2025. This marked a decline from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1. These figures highlight challenges in sustaining full production recovery, despite new investments, security improvements, and government interventions.
BMI attributes the expected 2026 rise to midstream infrastructure upgrades, ongoing debottlenecking efforts, and additional output from smaller fields.
The Dangote Refinery has already reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products. BMI notes that smooth operations at the refinery will continue to lower fuel imports and support foreign exchange liquidity. However, any delays could increase imports, exacerbate foreign exchange pressures, and raise inflation, potentially slowing economic growth.
Beyond oil, BMI warns that worsening security is a significant threat. The rising number of kidnapping incidents in 2025 has strained the country’s fragile security landscape. Analysts caution that further insecurity could disrupt agriculture and oil output, discourage investment, and force the government to divert funds from infrastructure and social programmes.
Geopolitical tensions also pose risks. Deteriorating relations with the United States could trigger higher tariffs or sanctions. This would restrict oil exports, limit access to financing, and undermine investor confidence in Nigeria.
NNPC Ltd reported that crude oil production fell slightly to 1.58 million bpd in October from 1.61 million bpd in September. Gas output rose to 6,997 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) from 6,284 mmscf/d. Gas sales also increased sharply to 4,713 mmscf/d from 3,443 mmscf/d the previous month.