Nigeria’s Petrol Surge Sparks Energy Shift

  • Nigeria’s daily petrol use has risen to 52.9 million litres. Higher imports and stock rebuilding ahead of the festive season pushed this increase.
  • Modular refineries now run at 62.3%–91.4% utilisation. They add small refining gains, while state-owned plants remain shut.

Nigeria’s petrol consumption has increased sharply. The latest sector report indicates that daily PMS use has risen to 52.9 million litres, surpassing the 2025 benchmark of 50 million litres. At the start of November, Nigeria held 17 days of petrol cover, 35 days of diesel cover and 8 days of cooking gas cover. These figures indicate supply pressure, yet they also highlight efforts to build a more resilient system. The NMDPRA’s recent data further highlights rising domestic refining, stronger fuel supply links and expanding gas infrastructure. This combination signals Nigeria’s push towards long-term energy security.

The regulator linked the rise in PMS supply to four factors. Supply in September and October was unusually low. Operators also needed to rebuild stocks before the festive season. The NNPC added extra imports as a last-resort supplier. Twelve cargoes also slipped from October into November. Together, these factors increased supply, despite the relatively small contribution from domestic refineries.

Nigeria planned to supply 35 million litres of PMS per day in November. Actual evacuation from refineries averaged 23.52 million litres. Diesel evacuation averaged 5.596 million litres. The state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna remained shut. Port Harcourt recorded no new production and only cleared old diesel stocks at a rate of 0.349 million litres per day. Warri and Kaduna stayed fully closed.

Modular refineries, however, operated at higher utilisation levels, ranging from 62.3% to 91.4%. They produced about 0.489 million litres of diesel per day. This is still modest, but it shows slow improvement in domestic capacity. The NMDPRA issued two new licences in November, bringing the total licensed projects to 48, including six operating private refineries. Waltersmith’s second train, which adds 5,000 barrels per day, is now in commissioning.

Petrol prices reflected the post-subsidy environment. Prices ranged from ₦ 0.63 to ₦ 0.68 per litre, using an exchange rate of ₦1,440 to $1. Major cities stayed within this band. LPG supply averaged 4,958 metric tonnes per day, while consumption was 3,992 metric tonnes. Prices ranged from ₦950 to ₦1,500 per kilogram.

International prices also shaped the market. Brent crude averaged $63.65 per barrel, and gasoline traded at $732.52 per metric tonne. Nigeria still exports crude oil and imports refined fuel, a gap that the government aims to narrow through new projects and refinery upgrades.

Gas played a stronger role in November. Daily supply averaged 4.684 Bscf. NLNG received 2.600 Bscf at 73.7% utilisation. The domestic market received 2.084 Bscf. Power plants, commercial users, and gas-based industries consumed the majority of this volume. LNG exports averaged 101,555 cubic metres per day, with extra flows heading through the West African Gas Pipeline. Key processing plants also ran at high utilisation, with Soku reaching nearly 97%.

The November report shows a sector in transition. Nigeria still depends on imported petrol, but modular refineries and private projects are gaining ground. Gas remains central to both domestic and export plans. The pace of refinery work, gas expansion and regulatory reforms will determine whether future reports show true structural change or continued reliance on imported fuel.

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