- Nigeria’s oil output increased but still fell short of OPEC’s quota in November.
- Global market decisions by OPEC+ reflect caution as demand remains uncertain.
Nigeria’s oil output continues to show a cautious recovery, although it still trails The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota for the fourth month. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report reveals that production rose to 1.436 million bpd in November from 1.401 million bpd in October. The increase is small, yet it signals a gradual rebound. However, Nigeria remains below its assigned OPEC production level, which it last met in July 2025.
According to the report, Nigeria recorded 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025. This reflects a decline from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter. These figures underline the ongoing challenge of sustaining output despite increased investments. They also show that government interventions in the upstream sector are progressing slowly.
Meanwhile, the global oil market remains fragile. OPEC+ will need to supply about 43 million barrels per day next year to stabilize demand. This aligns with last month’s output levels. Even so, the outlook contrasts with earlier projections that expected an oversupplied market in 2026. Because of this uncertainty, major OPEC+ producers led by Saudi Arabia paused further production increases for the first quarter of 2026.
Nigeria’s struggle to meet its quota continues to pressure foreign exchange earnings. Oil revenue still drives government finances, so consistent shortfalls may limit fiscal strength. Even so, the slight rise in production offers a positive signal. It suggests that a steady recovery may be possible. This could support stronger economic performance if the trend continues.
Additionally, refinery rehabilitation and private refinery expansion, including the Dangote plant, could improve domestic supply. These efforts may help Nigeria achieve more stability in 2026. However, security issues and infrastructure weaknesses must still be resolved to unlock full growth potential.
Petrol consumption also declined. New government data shows daily usage dropped to 52.9 million litres in November, compared with 56.74 million litres in October. This shift reflects changing national fuel demand patterns.