- Nigeria’s petrol import bill fell sharply in the first nine months of 2025, dropping by N6.07 trillion.
- The trend also suggests a gradual easing of foreign exchange pressure caused by large-scale fuel importation since the subsidy reform of 2023.
Nigeria’s petrol import bill fell sharply in the first nine months of 2025, dropping by N6.07 trillion compared with the same period of 2024, according to an analysis of National Bureau of Statistics trade data.
The value of imported motor spirit, ordinary, stood at N5.42tn between January and September 2025, far below the N11.50tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The contraction represents a 52.82 per cent collapse in the country’s petrol import bill, a shift analysts link to improvements in domestic refining output and reduced dependence on offshore supply.
A breakdown of the quarterly data shows that the decline has been consistent since the start of the year. In the first quarter of 2024, Nigeria spent N3.81tn on PMS imports, but this fell to N1.76tn in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a 53.8 per cent decline, or about N2.05tn.
The second quarter followed the same pattern, with PMS imports sliding from N4.36tn in Q2 2024 to N2.38tn in Q2 2025. This represented a year-on-year fall of N1.99tn, or 45.6 per cent. The third quarter recorded the sharpest contraction: petrol imports dropped from N3.32tn between July and September 2024 to N1.29tn in the same period of 2025, a decrease of N2.03tn or 61.2 per cent.
Across all three quarters combined, Nigeria imported N6.07tn less PMS than it did in 2024, underscoring the magnitude of the shift in its petroleum supply structure.
Although the NBS has not attributed the decline to a single factor, the speed and scale of the reduction align with ongoing improvements in domestic production capacity.
The trend also suggests a gradual easing of foreign exchange pressure caused by large-scale fuel importation since the subsidy reform of 2023. The NBS filings show that PMS remained one of the country’s top import items through 2024, but its share has thinned steadily.
In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025, motor spirit still featured prominently in the import basket, but at far lower values than in previous years.
The declining import trend corresponds with the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility, which began diesel and aviation fuel production in January and added petrol output in September, and is considered central to Nigeria’s goal of fuel self-sufficiency.
The refinery’s entry has created greater competition in the downstream market, with petrol retail prices in the country dropping randomly throughout the year. However, operations at the facility have faced early challenges. In March, Dangote Refinery temporarily suspended local currency sales due to difficulty in sourcing foreign exchange, as the refinery purchases crude oil in dollars but receives payments in naira.
The Federal Government has since stepped in to resolve the naira-for-crude bottleneck, allowing the refinery to continue the deal and reducing Nigeria’s reliance on petrol imports.