At the 113th edition of Nextier Power Dialogue, experts highlighted key commitments from COP28, COP29, and COP30, emphasising renewable energy expansion, energy efficiency, and the mobilisation of climate finance to drive Africa’s energy transition.
While international agreements set ambitious targets, they stressed the urgent need for domestic capacity building, financial innovation, and policy implementation to translate commitments into tangible, on-the-ground projects across Nigeria.
The session, hosted by The Electricity Hub, was titled: “Energy Access, Just Transition, Climate Finance: Defining Nigeria’s Priorities Post-COP30.”
The panel, moderated by Emeka Okpukpara, Partner, Nextier, featured notable speakers, including Dr Geoffrey Omedo, Technical Specialist – Climate and Energy Finance, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Nigeria; Lolade Awogbade, Sustainability Specialist, Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN); and Tengi George-Ikoli, Country Manager, Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).
Policy Insight
Dr Omedo noted that experts have closely followed discussions across multiple Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings, particularly those related to climate and energy transitions. In this context, he identified COP28 in Dubai as a landmark moment, where the global community agreed to key targets, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and transitioning away from fossil fuels within energy systems.
However, he emphasised that the agreement underscored the need for an orderly and just transition, cautioning that implementation must reflect countries’ national characteristics and specific circumstances to avoid economic or social disruption. He described this consensus as a significant milestone that gained widespread recognition among participants at the conference.
Building on this momentum, Dr Omedo explained that COP29 shifted focus towards the financing dimension of climate action. He highlighted the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities as central to climate discussions, noting that countries with the highest historical and current emissions bear greater responsibility for mobilising financial resources.
He pointed out that while Africa and other developing regions account for only about 3 per cent of global emissions, G20 countries contribute roughly 80 per cent, underscoring the imbalance in responsibility and impact.
According to him, the outcomes from Baku provided a crucial financial framework to support climate transitions, including mechanisms for carbon markets under Article 6. He added that COP29 and the lead-up to COP30 have helped clarify implementation pathways for these mechanisms.
Despite these advances, Dr Omedo observed that Africa continues to face significant challenges, particularly in attracting clean energy investment. He noted that the continent currently receives only about 2 per cent of the estimated USD 2 trillion required globally for clean energy investments, highlighting the urgent need for greater financial support and resource mobilisation.
To address this gap, Dr Omedo stressed that unlocking capital will require more substantial utilisation of local financial systems alongside existing global financing mechanisms.
Drawing on his experience, he recalled supporting Kenyan commercial banks in achieving accreditation with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in November 2020, yet noted that no projects were financed through the GCF until recently. He added that this challenge mirrors experiences elsewhere on the continent, including the DBN, which obtained GCF accreditation two years ago.
Ultimately, Dr Omedo emphasised that African direct access entities require significant capacity building and sustained technical support to accelerate project pipelines and effectively access climate finance. He concluded by underscoring that governments have a critical role to play in strengthening institutional readiness and enabling faster mobilisation of climate investments across the continent.
Climate Financing
For her part, Awogbade noted that the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC) drove several key documents and policies that were signed and adopted this year, including the carbon tax and the carbon management platform policies.
She emphasised that while these policies mark significant progress, “the devil is in the detail,” as considerable work is still required to unpack and interpret the documents. This is so stakeholders across different sectors can clearly understand where they fit in, how the frameworks translate into naira and kobo, what qualifies for support, and what does not. She also noted that Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 document was made public after being finalised ahead of COP30.
Awogbade explained that DBN is innovating to channel climate investments into the power sector better. She said DBN’s immediate focus is debt financing, supported by active green credit lines extended through participating financial institutions (PFIs). These facilities are commercial rather than concessional, reflecting DBN’s mandate as a non-concessional development finance institution, even though its loans have historically been priced below regular commercial levels.
Furthermore, she highlighted blended finance as another tool DBN aims to deploy for large-scale projects at both national and sub-national levels. The objective, she said, is to structure financing mixes that improve project bankability and enable successful implementation.
While DBN is prepared to put “skin in the game,” she stressed that other players—investors and DFIs—must also commit resources. She added that this approach featured prominently in COP discussions, arguing that rather than waiting indefinitely for loss-and-damage funding, mobilising domestic resources through blended finance offers a more practical pathway.
Awogbade also noted that DBN operates a credit guarantee company and executes many transactions through Impact Credit Guarantee (ICG), including green transactions, although the market remains nascent for Nigerian businesses. She added that DBN supports SMEs that have viable solutions but require financing.
She explained that about 95 per cent of the green financing portfolio in Nigeria is directed toward solar projects. While solar was initially perceived as high-risk by most PFIs, market maturity has improved significantly, with widespread adoption of domestic renewable energy equipment. As a result, banks are becoming more open to financing the sector.
However, she cautioned that continued effort is needed, particularly through guarantees provided by institutions like DBN to de-risk early lending. The success of these guarantees, she said, demonstrates their value as a tool in engagements with banks.
Additionally, Awogbade noted that DBN has trained banks to establish green desks, thereby strengthening their understanding of financing renewables, energy efficiency, and MSMEs. She said this capacity-building effort is already yielding results, as banks become more confident, expand their portfolios, and better appreciate the whole ecosystem—creating a win-win outcome that increases access to finance and advances the broader climate financing conversation.
Implementation Gap
Meanwhile, George-Ikoli observed that one of the key developments alongside COP30 was the publication of Nigeria’s Just Transition Guidelines.
She explained that a major criticism of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan, released in 2021, was the limited inclusion and participation of Nigerians, particularly experts and industry players, as well as the lack of broader stakeholder dialogue in shaping the plan. Against this backdrop, she described the release of the Just Transition Guidelines as a positive and exciting step.
She noted that there are multiple engagement levels around COP30 that Nigeria can leverage to ensure its Just Transition objectives influence international decision-making. According to her, the Just Transition roadmap generated significant discussion at COP30, although Nigeria, along with several other African countries, appeared relatively muted in the final accord.
She attributed this subdued response to longstanding frustrations, as many financial commitments announced at previous COPs have failed to translate into tangible investments and on-the-ground implementation across Africa.
Furthermore, George-Ikoli highlighted that the COP presidency has initiated the development of an energy transition roadmap, presenting a critical opportunity for Nigeria and other African countries to shape what a practical and realistic pathway should look like for their contexts. She stressed that this process would strengthen Africa’s negotiating position ahead of COP31.
She explained that the roadmap development process is expected to take about six months, during which the presidency will design the framework internally before presenting it at COP31. She emphasised the urgency for Nigeria and African countries to engage early across various platforms to articulate and negotiate their priorities, warning that delayed engagement risks continued marginalisation in global climate and energy transition discussions.
In addition, she highlighted the launch and anticipated rollout of fugitive methane guidelines covering the midstream and downstream segments of Nigeria’s energy sector as another significant development, alongside COP30. She said this represents an important step toward closing gaps in Nigeria’s methane emissions framework.
While upstream gas operations already have regulatory guidelines, she noted that the midstream and downstream segments have lacked clear guidance to shape and direct their actions. The introduction of these guidelines, she explained, is critical given the influence of major industry players such as Dangote in Nigeria’s energy landscape.
She described this shift as commendable, adding that the next critical step is effective policy enforcement and implementation to ensure these measures deliver real dividends for the energy sector.
George-Ikoli referenced other headline outcomes, including commitments to triple adaptation finance and broaden damage-related investments. However, she cautioned that the actual test will be whether these commitments result in real traction—specifically, the development of bankable projects that are implemented on the ground, deliver measurable impacts, and sustainably support communities and ecosystems across Nigeria.
Investment Readiness
Okpukpara highlighted that COP30 made notable commitments regarding the global energy transition. He reflected on Nigeria’s Integrated Resource Plan, emphasising that it demonstrates how gas can serve as a transitional fuel while supporting the scaling of renewable energy.
Additionally, he emphasised the importance of evaluating project costs and financing strategies, noting that South Africa’s transition plan is estimated to cost approximately $100 billion.
Okpukpara further observed that capacity building is essential to de-risk investments. He also pointed out that the Global Renewables Alliance had advocated for tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030—a goal championed at COP28, but noted that this discussion has yet to take root as a substantive African conversation.
Moving forward, stakeholders called for strengthened collaboration between governments, development finance institutions, private investors, and local actors to unlock climate finance, implement the Just Transition Guidelines, and scale renewable energy solutions. This will ensure Africa actively shapes its energy future while delivering sustainable, measurable impacts for communities and ecosystems.