- China drives the energy transition, leading the way in solar, wind, and electric vehicle production.
- Global energy efficiency and policy consistency remain critical to limit warming and advance the energy transition.
The United Nations’ annual Emissions Gap Report, released in November, highlighted modest progress in addressing global warming over the past year. The report, however, warned that this advance faces significant risks from inconsistent policies, particularly in the United States.
Based on current technological trends and government measures, the planet is expected to warm by around 2.8°C this century compared to preindustrial times. If every country meets its official targets, warming might fall to 2.3°C. Many nations, however, are struggling to deliver their commitments. This year marks the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, when countries pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The Biden administration pledged a 61% cut in emissions by 2035. So far, the United States has reduced emissions by only 17%. The Trump administration abandoned the original goal entirely. In March, non-fossil fuels generated a majority of U.S. electricity for the first time, a positive milestone. Yet the administration paused five offshore wind projects last week, citing “national security” concerns.
Other nations, such as the UK and Denmark, operate offshore wind without issues. Onshore wind continues to provide roughly 10% of U.S. electricity. Most comes from turbines in the Great Plains and Texas.
Residential electricity prices in the U.S. have risen over 30% since 2020, almost double the rate of inflation. Gas production has increased only slightly despite Trump’s push for higher output. This rise has minimal impact on the global energy mix.
Ford recently halted production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning. The vehicle struggled with a high starting price and limited range when fully loaded. The elimination of EV tax credits contributed to single-digit EV sales in the U.S., even though transportation remains the country’s largest source of carbon emissions.
Internationally, China continues to drive the energy transition. It still accounts for 93% of new global coal-power construction, but it dominates solar PV, wind turbines, and electric vehicle (EV) production.
China invested $329 billion in clean energy supply chains from 2019 to 2023. It now produces over 70% of the world’s EVs. Much of the surplus is exported to markets such as Pakistan, where solar energy now generates 25% of electricity. The UK has also seen a doubling of Chinese EV registrations in one year.
Despite these gains, electricity only accounts for 22% of global energy use. Heavy industries such as steel and concrete production remain primarily dependent on fossil fuels. Buildings waste energy due to poor insulation.
Food production accounts for roughly 20% of global fuel consumption, while also resulting in an estimated 20% of food being lost to waste. Efficiency improvements in these sectors could significantly advance the energy transition.
The road ahead remains steep. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters. Policy consistency, technological adoption, and global collaboration will determine whether the energy transition succeeds.