- Dangote refinery raised petrol prices by 14 per cent and cancelled prior supply agreements.
- Import competitiveness depends on regulatory permits and domestic refinery output stability.
Dangote refinery petrol price increase has reshaped Nigeria’s downstream fuel market this week. Nigeria’s privately owned 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery raised petrol prices by 14 per cent. The refinery informed local buyers that previous purchase agreements no longer apply. Consequently, market participants began reassessing supply strategies and pricing assumptions.
On Monday, Dangote announced a new ex-refinery price of 799 naira per liter. Previously, the company reduced prices during the Christmas demand peak. It said the move aimed to cushion Nigerians amid higher household spending. During that period, brokers reported petrol prices near 700 naira per liter. However, the refinery has now reversed that temporary relief.
At the same time, Dangote cancelled supply contracts tied to the earlier pricing structure. Traders confirmed several agreements were annulled. One trader said a deal struck at 699 naira per liter collapsed before scheduled truck loading. Therefore, buyers now face revised costs and renegotiation pressures.
The December price cut weakened petrol arbitrage economics from Europe into Nigeria. Consequently, imports became less attractive during that period. With the latest increase, some traders believe imports may regain competitiveness. However, this outcome depends on regulatory approvals. Nigeria’s downstream regulator, NMDPRA, has not issued petrol import permits for 2026. Instead, it seeks to limit imports to cover domestic shortfalls.
Dangote refinery’s management insists domestic supply remains steady. Chief executive David Bird said the refinery supplies about 50 million litres daily. Nevertheless, regulators reported lower December supply volumes than planned. While the refinery offered higher volumes, marketers lifted less product. Therefore, offered capacity did not fully translate into market supply.
Operational factors also influence supply expectations. NMDPRA reported that the refinery’s petrol-producing RFCC unit went offline in January. Although Bird said supply could continue during maintenance, uncertainty persists. Additionally, sources suggested a temporary shutdown of the crude distillation unit. This information remains unconfirmed but has heightened market caution.
Meanwhile, fuel oil exports from the refinery increased in January. Four low-Sulphur fuel oil cargoes loaded during the month. This marked the highest export volume since September 2025. At that time, refinery maintenance also affected petrol output.
Globally, petrol margins softened slightly. Benchmark gasoline cracks to Brent edged lower during the session. Therefore, international pricing signals offer limited relief to local buyers.
Overall, the Dangote refinery petrol price increase underscores Nigeria’s evolving fuel market. Pricing decisions, regulatory controls, and refinery operations now interact more tightly. As a result, marketers and consumers face continued uncertainty in the short term.